Majority say the economy greatly influences the vote, and that personal situation has worsened

The country’s economic situation is determining for most Brazilians to decide who to vote for this year — and, for most voters, the situation has worsened in recent months.

According to a Datafolha poll, 53% of Brazilians consider that the economic situation is having “a lot of influence” on their voting decision.

Added to those who think that the economy has “a little influence” (24%) in this choice, the importance of the topic reaches 77% – while 21% see no influence at all.

In this context, the total number of Brazilians who consider that their personal economic situation has worsened in recent months rose from 46% to 52% (between a survey carried out in March and now).

The importance given by voters to the economy and the deterioration in the perception of personal condition help to explain the poor electoral performance, so far, of President Jair Bolsonaro (PL).

According to Datafolha, if the election took place today, former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) would win the 2022 election in the first round, with 54% of valid votes, compared to 30% for Bolsonaro.

The percentage of valid votes, which excludes blanks and nulls, is considered by the Electoral Court to declare the final result — 50% of valid votes plus one are required.

If he doesn’t win, Bolsonaro will be the first president not to be reelected among all those who could run, since redemocratization, for a second term. Fernando Henrique Cardoso, Lula and Dilma Rousseff were re-elected.

The survey also shows that about 7 out of 10 voters would not change their vote if the country’s economic situation worsens — or that of some economic indicators.

In the case of Bolsonaro voters, however, the possibility of changing their vote due to a worsening is about ten percentage points higher than among Lula’s supporters.

If inflation rises, for example, 32% of the president’s voters can change their vote. Among Lula’s, they are 23%.

Bolsonaro is running for reelection with two of the main economic indicators —inflation and unemployment — in the double digits; and with the Central Bank raising interest rates to control the rise in prices, which makes consumer financing more expensive and discourages business investment.

In the 12-month period up to April, the IPCA (official inflation index) stood at 12.13%, the highest level since October 2003. Some banks and consulting firms believe that the rate may fall to the single-digit range only in the last quarter. this year.

Unemployment ended the first quarter at 11.1%, the same level as in the fourth quarter of 2021, equivalent to 11.9 million unemployed.

About 2 in 3 voters (66%) believe that the country’s economic situation has worsened in recent months, the same index captured by the survey in March.

The rate is higher among women than men (71% and 61%, respectively), among residents of the Northeast (72%) and among Lula voters (84%, compared to 27% among Bolsonaro supporters). . Among those who disapprove of the Bolsonaro government, the index reaches 91%.

The influence of the economy on the decision to vote reaches higher rates among men than among women (80%, against 74%), among the youngest (85%) and the most educated (87%).

For the survey, Datafolha heard 2,556 people over 16 years old in 181 municipalities in the country on May 25 and 26. contracted by Sheetthe poll has a margin of error of more or less two percentage points and is registered with the TSE (Superior Electoral Court) under the number BR-05166/2022.