About 3 in 10 Brazilians will be able to change their voting intentions by election day, next October 2, depending on the evolution of inflation until then, according to a Datafolha survey.
In total, 31% see the possibility of changing their choice if inflation increases (12% with high possibility, 11% medium and 8% small).
Similar proportions of respondents estimate that rising unemployment and a worsening economy in general could have the same effect on voter choice.
One of the main obstacles in the way of President Jair Bolsonaro’s (PL) reelection project, the behavior of inflation will be more decisive (for about 4 in 10 voters) among the unemployed and residents of the North region.
Among young people aged 16 to 24, the relevance will be even greater: more than half (51%) consider changing their vote depending on the evolution of prices.
Representing 14% of the total number of voters in the Datafolha sample, many young people in this age group are living for the first time in a context of soaring prices.
The oldest among them were around 17 years old in the last inflationary surge in the country, in 2015, when the IPCA, the official price index, rose 10.67%.
Among the voters of the two candidates leading the race so far, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT; with 48% of voting intentions in the first round), and Bolsonaro (27%), are the president’s supporters the most likely to change the voting intentions due to the behavior of inflation: 33% say they are willing to do so. Among those who want to vote for PT, only 23%.
In the 12-month period up to April, the IPCA rose 12.13%, the highest level since October 2003 (13.98%). Many analysts and consultancies estimate that inflation will remain in the double digits until close to the election.
Itaú, for example, forecasts a single-digit drop in October alone. Even so, according to the bank, inflation would end 2022 at 8.5%, reflecting higher administered prices (mainly fuel) and some drop in the values ​​of consumer goods in the second half of the year.
Datafolha research shows that the chance of volatility of voters taking into account inflation is similar to that related to the behavior of unemployment and the economic situation in general — both in the total of Brazilians and considering, separately, only the voters of Lula and Bolsonaro.
Even as the incumbent and responsible for managing the economy, Bolsonaro has, in relation to Lula, voters around ten percentage points more likely to change their vote until the election, depending on the behavior of inflation, unemployment and the economy.
In Lula’s case, 78% of his voters say they will not change their vote if unemployment rises. Among Bolsonaro supporters, a greater vacancy until the election would not change the intention of 67%.
Like inflation, the unemployment rate is also in the double digits and has been one of the main problems for Bolsonaro, jeopardizing his electoral chances.
In the first quarter of this year, the unemployment rate in Brazil was stable compared to the last quarter of 2021, at 11.1%, according to the IBGE, representing 11.9 million unemployed Brazilians.
In addition to high unemployment, IBGE data show that the average income of Brazilians fell by almost 9% in the last 12 months up to March. According to the institute, the average value dropped from R$2,789 in March last year to R$2,548 this year.
For the survey, Datafolha heard 2,556 people over 16 years old in 181 municipalities in the country on May 25 and 26. contracted by Sheetthe poll has a margin of error of more or less two percentage points and is registered with the TSE (Superior Electoral Court) under the number BR-05166/2022.
I have over 8 years of experience in the news industry. I have worked for various news websites and have also written for a few news agencies. I mostly cover healthcare news, but I am also interested in other topics such as politics, business, and entertainment. In my free time, I enjoy writing fiction and spending time with my family and friends.
