The expectation of reopening the Chinese economy and the possibility of new sanctions on Russia raised the price of Brent oil, an international benchmark traded in London, to the highest levels since the beginning of March.
The rise increases pressure on Petrobras, which has been charging gasoline prices below international parity for weeks. The diesel lag also increased and the risk of readjustments led President Jair Bolsonaro (PL) to criticize the company again.
This Monday (30), the Brent oil contract with delivery in June exceeded US$ 120 (R$ 570) per barrel, closing the session at US$ 121.67 (R$ 578). The contract for July, more liquid, closed the day at US$ 117.60 (R$ 558) per barrel.
The easing of restrictions on travel in China renewed expectations of an increase in global demand, after a period of uncertainty regarding the evolution of contamination in that country that took oil below US$ 100 (R$ 475) per barrel in April.
In Europe, the discussion about banning Russian imports also puts pressure on prices, as it can reduce the supply of the commodity, at a time when the market is already under pressure.
“Europe has been dealing with this for almost a month, but more and more the market is pricing in (additional sanctions) as a risk,” says Daniel Ghali, senior commodities strategist at TD Securities in Toronto.
The rise, which has been sustained since the middle of last week, widened the gap between fuel prices in the country and import parity, a concept used by Petrobras in its fuel price policy.
According to Abicom (Brazilian Association of Fuel Importers), the average price of gasoline in Brazilian refineries is R$0.48 per liter below par. There are already 80 days without adjustment in the sale price of fuel by Petrobras refineries.
In the case of diesel, which had its last adjustment 21 days ago, the lag is smaller, at R$ 0.34 per litre, also according to Abicom’s accounts.
The analyst at Ativa Investimentos Ilan Arbetman recalls that the proximity to summer in the Northern Hemisphere should keep prices under pressure, as gasoline consumption tends to increase with the holidays in the United States.
On Thursday (2), member countries of OPEC (Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries) meet to decide their production targets, but the market does not believe in a significant increase in supply.
“When we match this increase in demand with the compressed supply, it gives this increase in the prices of derivatives”, he says, noting that the rise in gasoline in the United States negatively offset gains that the country would have with the appreciation of the real in recent days.
“We don’t know if an increase will be implemented, there was this change of command at Petrobras a little while ago, we know about the effervescence of this topic on the national scene, but the numbers show a potential for a readjustment of more than 20% in gasoline.”
In the case of diesel, he adds that the level of lag is smaller, but the difference generates supply risks to the domestic market, since the tendency is that gas stations and distributors are not planning to import the products.
This Monday, President Jair Bolsonaro again said that Petrobras could “break Brazil” if there are new increases in diesel. He also reinforced criticism of the states, saying that “it is a crime” to charge a real ICMS on fuel.
The government supports the passage of a bill that creates a ceiling for the state tax not only on fuel, but also on the electricity bill. On another front, it tries to overturn in the STF (Federal Supreme Court) a maneuver by the states against a law that would reduce the tax in 2022.
Dissatisfied with the impacts of rising fuel prices on his popularity, Bolsonaro announced a new change in command of Petrobras last week, but the change will take time to occur, as it depends on a meeting of the state-owned shareholders.
The meeting has not yet been convened, as the company’s board of directors understands that the company must analyze CVs of all eight nominations for the board before setting the date, to comply with a decree edited by the president himself in March.
Until this Monday, the government has announced only one of the eight names it has to nominate, that of the state-owned company’s new president, Caio Pas de Andrade.
with Reuters
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