The market’s expectation for inflation this year reached double digits in the Focus survey released by the Central Bank this Monday (22), with specialists starting to see even more monetary tightening in 2022.
The weekly survey pointed out that the expectation for the increase of the IPCA (Broad National Consumer Price Index) in 2021 reached 10.12% — the previous week, this percentage was 9.77% —, well above the center of the target 3.75% with a tolerance margin of 1.5 percentage point plus or minus.
For 2022, the scenario is also one of higher inflation, at 4.96%, against 4.79% observed in the previous week, getting closer and closer to the target ceiling for next year — in this case, 3.50%, also with a 1.5 point margin.
At the same time, the weekly survey of a hundred economists also showed the prospect of further monetary tightening in 2022, with the benchmark interest rate (Selic) now calculated at 11.25%, from 11% the week before.
For this year, the perspective of a 1.5 percentage point increase remains at the last meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee of the year, on December 7 and 8, with the Selic closing 2021 at 9.25%.
In turn, the scenario for the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) continued to deteriorate. Now GDP growth estimates are 4.80% in 2021 and 0.70% in 2022, against 4.88% and 0.93% before, respectively.
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