Datafolha: Bolsonaro voter vaccinated less against Covid and distrusts the polls

The share of voters who want to re-elect President Jair Bolsonaro (PL) in the October election is greater among those who have not taken or have taken fewer doses of the Covid-19 vaccine and among those who distrust a little or a lot of electronic voting machines.

That’s why 8 out of 10 of its supporters think the Armed Forces should participate in counting votes. About half also agree with the phrase “the armed people will never be enslaved” and believe their economic situation has improved in recent months.

See below what people who see Bolsonaro as the first option for president think about these four topics: economy, weapons, pandemic and polls. Also understand their profile, generally more masculine, wealthier, whiter, older and more educated, especially among entrepreneurs.

The subjects were questioned in the latest Datafolha survey, carried out with 2,556 people over 16 years of age in 181 cities across the country on the 25th and 26th. The survey was commissioned by Sheet and is registered with the TSE (Superior Electoral Court) under number BR-05166/2022.

The total margin of error is plus or minus two percentage points. It is important to consider, however, that it increases when considering only those who will vote for each candidate.

Within this sample, there are 1,234 in favor of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT), 693 in favor of Bolsonaro and 179 in favor of Ciro Gomes (PDT).

1. ECONOMY

Bolsonaro voters are generally more optimistic about the economy: 41% think that the country’s situation has improved in recent months (in contrast to 14% of the total) and 48% believe that this has also happened in their own lifetime (against 19). %). Most of them see influence of the theme in their vote.

Only 16% of his supporters receive Auxílio Brasil, the successor to Bolsa Família, compared to 26% among Lula’s supporters. They, however, are more satisfied with the amount received, which is at least R$400 — almost half consider it sufficient. Most do not think this is important to decide the vote.

2. WEAPONS

A pivot of measures to ease access to weapons, Bolsonaro attracts voters who agree with the phrase “Brazilian society would be safer if people carried guns to protect themselves from violence” — 45% of his supporters do so.

The mark is much higher than the supporters of Lula (18%) and Ciro (15%).

Under Bolsonaro, Brazil reached the mark of 2 million private legal weapons in December 2020, the equivalent of one for every 100 Brazilians, according to the yearbook of the Brazilian Forum on Public Security, which compiled the figures for the Army and the Federal Police.

3. PANDEMIC

People who intend to vote for Bolsonaro have a lower rate of vaccination against Covid: 93% of them say they have been immunized, compared to 98% of voters for Lula and Ciro. The percentage of those who claim to have taken the booster dose is also lower (46%, against 58% and 66%, respectively).

That’s because nine out of ten bolsonaristas believe that the pandemic is fully or partially controlled and seven out of ten evaluate the president’s work as great or good in this regard. As a result, 43% of them are not afraid to get infected — twice as many voters as their rivals.

The share of Bolsonaro supporters who agree that the federal government should provide the vaccine for free to the entire population in 2023 (96%) is also slightly lower than the others (99%), but still within the margin of error.

4. ELECTRONIC VOTES

The survey shows that 40% of those who intend to vote for Bolsonaro do not trust electronic voting machines — against 16% among those who tend to choose Lula and 13%, Ciro. This is reflected in the high rate of Bolsonaristas who see a lot or a little chance of fraud in the elections (81%).

It is the same percentage of those who agree that the Armed Forces should participate in the counting of votes. The president’s supporters in general don’t think his statements get in the way of the election (this share is 30%, half of the 60% in general).

As with supporters of his rivals, however, most believe that Bolsonaro’s attacks on ministers of the Federal Supreme Court (STF) and the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) and his threats over the elections should be taken seriously by the institutions of the country.

5. PROFILE

Bolsonaro’s voters are much more masculine —27% of men spontaneously mentioned him as their first option, against 18% of women— and older: their voting intentions are 26% among the elderly over 60 years and drops to 16% among who is between 16 and 24 years old, the opposite of Lula.

The movement is the same according to income brackets. The president intends to vote for 44% of those earning more than ten minimum wages a month, a share that drops to just 15% among those earning less than two minimum wages, the opposite of his rival.

This makes it the choice of half of the entrepreneurs, with a rate also above the average among retirees (25%). He usually garners even more votes among those who have completed higher education and among whites (27% in both groups), as well as the Midwest (35%), where he has been rising in recent polls.

In spontaneous responses, he has an advantage among evangelicals (32%, against 25% for Lula). In the stimulated interviews of the first and second rounds, however, the two divide the voters of this religious group.