Europeans are not worried about grain supplies, as they are self-sufficient. Accessibility to the foreign market, both for export and import, however, is a concern.
Despite good domestic production, Europe suffers from the same bottlenecks as other countries, caused by high commodity prices and the weight they bring to inflation.
Domestic demand is slower. The advance of African swine fever on the continent reduces the need for feed. In addition, the bloc of countries slammed on the brakes and reduced the volume of vegetable oils in biofuel production.
If the weather is favorable, the 27 countries belonging to the European Union will produce 298 million tons of cereals in the 2022/23 harvest. As a result, exports of these products could increase to 41 million tons from July 2022 to June 2023, 40% more than in this commercial crop.
Total wheat production, one of the main problems in the world supply sector, is expected to be 139 million tons, with possible exports of 40 million. In the case of corn, the bloc’s harvest will be 74 million tons, but there will be a need for imports of 9 million.
Europeans are less dependent on the foreign market. In the 2020/21 harvest, they imported 21.1 million tons of cereals, a volume that dropped to 19 million in this one. In 2022/23, there will be 14 million.
The production of oilseeds is also not a problem for the countries of the bloc, according to analysts at the European Commission. Production rises to 30.2 million this year, up 6.5%, and is expected to reach 32.2 million in the next harvest.
Europe will raise sunflower production, one of the bottlenecks in the production of world leader Ukraine, to 11.2 million tons, a volume 10% higher than the average of the last five years.
Soybean imports in the 2022/23 crop remain at a level close to 15 million tons. This volume is 3% higher than the previous one. Meal and oil imports decline.
Protein production drops to 44 million tonnes in 2022. Producers will put 6.8 million tonnes of beef on the market, a volume 1% lower.
Pork production, due to the effects of African swine fever and restrictions on exports, drops to 22.9 million, down 3%. Already the chicken is stable at 13.4 million.
Dependent on the Ukrainian market for chicken supply, Europe should import more poultry from Brazil, according to analysts in the bloc.​
the soy leap The soy price boom has greatly increased the sector’s cash position. Revenues from exports from the complex (grains, bran and oil) should reach US$ 51.4 billion this year in Brazil. In 2020, it was US$ 32.5 billion.
The Soy Leap 2 In the United States, the soy complex should generate US$ 32.3 billion this business year. Two years ago, revenues totaled US$ 23 billion.
Milk The smaller product offer and the dispute of the industries for the scarce raw material provoked a high, discounted the inflation, of 15% from January to May in the field.
no relief The data are from Cepea (Center for Advanced Studies in Applied Economics), which records the lack of investments, high production costs and the departure of producers from the activity as the main reasons for this increase. The high should reach the consumer’s pocket in the coming weeks.
Soy Late planting in Rio Grande do Sul surprised, indicating better productivity. As a result, StoneX raised national production to 124.4 million tons this season, 1 million more than it had previously estimated.
Corn The off-season is expected to yield 88.3 million tons, 49.2% above last year’s harvest. With this, the country’s total production rises to 116.8 million tons in the 2021/22 harvest, according to StoneX.
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