The release this Thursday (2) of Brazilian GDP for the first quarter triggered a series of upward revisions in forecasts for activity by banks, which continue to see a weaker pace in the second half, but now perhaps in the form of a slowdown. more gradual.
The Brazilian GDP (Gross Domestic Product) grew by 1.0% compared to the last three months of 2021, accelerating compared to the end of last year, when it advanced 0.7% over the previous quarter. The data were released by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
Itaú Unibanco increased the expected growth rate for 2022 to 1.6%, from 1.0% in the previous scenario, and projects a 0.8% increase in GDP in the second quarter.
“Despite the lower-than-expected result, the release of the GDP for the first quarter confirms that the economy had a strong start to the year and consolidates our perception that the first half should have more robust growth than initially expected,” said the bank in scenario review report, without forgetting, however, the perspective of a decline of 0.4% of GDP in both the third and fourth quarters.
Citi doubled its estimate of economic expansion this year to 1.4% from 0.7% earlier, after calling the year’s first three months’ performance “robust” and citing that the recovery in the labor market played a role. in the impulse of private consumption, which pulled the results from January to March.
JPMorgan predicts that the second quarter of the year will be “stronger” than the bank had expected and calculates GDP growth of 1.5% between April and June over the first quarter of the year – at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate. The full figure for 2022 was raised to 1.2%, up from 1% in the previous scenario.
Flávio Serrano, head of macroeconomic analysis at Greenbay Investimentos, calculated that the “strong” result for the first quarter leaves a statistical load “in the region of” 1.5%, which indicates an equally positive second quarter and eventually GDP growth of 2% in the year.
Santander Brasil now sees economic activity up 1.2% in 2022, well above the previous forecast of a 0.7% increase, citing “positive surprises that improved the outlook” for the first half and the consolidation of the reopening. economy, the recovery of the labor market and the strengthening of less cyclical sectors related to commodities.
In a review of the macro scenario, the Spanish bank said it expects a positive variation of 0.2% in GDP in the second quarter over the first (seasonally adjusted). In Santander’s accounts, between July and September the economy will be at a standstill, already under the effects of a contractionary monetary policy, and in the fourth quarter it will suffer a retraction of 0.4%.
Credit Suisse did not change its forecasts and continues to see a 1.4% expansion in the economy in 2022. The bank, known for its conservative views, still expects the economy to cool down due to the effects of the tightening of financial conditions, but considered that the figures released earlier by the IBGE suggest that this “slowdown may be more gradual than our expectation”.
“Domestically, labor market conditions have improved strongly in recent months, with the employed population reaching the highest level in history in April, which is favorable to consumption. Abroad, we see a greater probability of a scenario in which commodity prices remain high (for example, due to the resumption of China’s economy and prolonged supply constraints),” Credit Suisse said in a report.
Barclays adopted a more sober tone and limited itself to talking about “some upside risk (to activity) in the short term” due to better conditions in the labor market and higher government spending ahead of the elections.
The bank maintained a forecast of a GDP increase of 1.0% in 2022 and sees the second half of the year as “more challenging”, both due to internal factors – restrictive monetary policy and electoral uncertainties – and external issues – geopolitical events in Europe and the Covid zero policy in China.
Collaborated Camila Moreira
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