Gasoline and diesel stop rising at stations, but the accumulated increase is greater than the readjustment at the refinery

Almost a month after the last adjustment at Petrobras refineries, gasoline and diesel prices stopped rising at stations. Even so, the accumulated increase in pumps is far superior to the increases promoted by the state-owned company.

For specialists, the difference can be explained by the evolution of the price of biofuels mixed with the two products and by the transfer of international prices on imports by private companies.

Last week, the price of gasoline at the pumps was R$ 6.752 per liter, stable compared to the previous week. The value is 6.1% higher than the BRL 6.361 verified in the week prior to the readjustment. The increase in the refinery was R$ 0.21 per liter, but in the pumps the high already reached R$ 0.39 per liter.

The price of diesel has also stabilized at the pumps. According to the ANP, the product was sold last week for an average of R$ 5.356 per liter in the country. The amount is R$0.37 higher than the one in effect before the refinery readjustment.

The last adjustment was announced by the state-owned company on October 23, effective from the following day. As gasoline and diesel sold at service stations receive a mixture of ethanol and biodiesel, the impact of the readjustments on the final price should be R$ 0.15 and R$ 0.24, respectively.

Consultant Luiz Henrique Sanches says that part of the increase in gasoline can be explained by anhydrous ethanol, which is part of the mixture sold at gas stations. “This year, anhydrous has already risen from R$ 2.41 to R$ 4.43 per liter. Considering that it participates with 27%, its share in gasoline has already increased R$ 0.54 per liter this year,” he says.

Last week, says Sanches, the price of anhydrous fell R$ 0.05 per liter at the plants in São Paulo, but the impact on the pumps should only be captured by the ANP at the end of this week.

Biodiesel is also on the rise. In the last auction held by the ANP, for delivery between November and December, the product was purchased for R$5.907 per liter, 4.4% above the R$5.658 in effect in the previous two months. In the year, the accumulated high is 6.4%.

Hydrous ethanol was also stable in pumps last week, according to data from the ANP. On average, the product was sold at R$ 5.414 per liter in the country, 0.4% above the value in effect the week before.

This month, there was no pressure from the ICMS, as states decided to freeze the reference prices for calculating the tax. Otherwise, the transfer of the hike to refineries would help push the pump price of the two products even further.

Fecombustíveis (Federation of the Retail Trade of Fuels and Lubricants) also alleges that a first readjustment in early October had not yet been fully transferred to the pumps. This first increase took place before the ICMS was frozen, which increased the pressure.

According to the entity’s accounts, based on ANP prices, the portion of the final gasoline price that remains with distributors and resellers fell between the beginning of October and last week, from R$0.83 to R$0.77 per liter.

According to the ANP, the price of cooking gas remained stable last week, at R$ 102.27 per 13-kg cylinder. This Monday (22), President Jair Bolsonaro (no party) signed a law that will guarantee low-income families a subsidy of 50% of the final price of the product.

The price of CNG (natural gas for vehicles) rose 1.9% last week, to R$ 4.354 per cubic meter, the national average.

The rise in fuel prices is the main factor of inflationary pressure in the country and has been wreaking havoc on the popularity of Bolsonaro, who had been affirming a desire to privatize Petrobras so that he would no longer be held responsible for the increases.

On Monday, the market expectation for inflation in 2021 reached double digits in the Focus survey released by the Central Bank, with specialists starting to see even more monetary tightening in 2022.

The weekly survey pointed out that the expectation for the increase of the IPCA (Broad National Consumer Price Index) in 2021 reached 10.12% — the previous week, this percentage was 9.77% —, well above the center of the target 3.75% with a tolerance margin of 1.5 percentage point plus or minus.