Not even the return of the traditional June parties, after two years of the Covid-19 pandemic, escapes the soaring inflation in the country. The reason is the high prices of food used in the preparation of typical arraiás recipes.
In a basket with 35 foods and beverages measured by the IPCA-15 (Extended National Consumer Price Index-15), 34 were more expensive in the 12-month period up to May.
Tomatoes, which can be used in snacks such as hot dogs, had the biggest increase in the period: 80.48%.
Refined sugar (36.28%), crystal sugar (34.70%), soybean oil (33.80%), cassava (31.26%) and onion (30.34%), ingredients from various recipes, come from in sequence.
Long-life milk (28.04%), wheat flour (25.39%), cornmeal (24.67%), apple (24.28%) and mayonnaise (23.98%) did not escape the rise either.
Other foods associated with the festive period menu, such as corn in grain (23.55%) and cake (18.49%), also advanced.
The famine still reached drinks consumed at parties. Soft drinks and mineral water rose 11.70%, while beer rose 9.11%, according to the IPCA-15.
Of the sample with 35 products analyzed, rice (used in the preparation of rice pudding) was the only one that registered a drop in 12 months. The food retreated 10.80% until May, after having shot up in the initial phase of the pandemic.
The IPCA-15, released by the IBGE (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics), rose 12.20% in general terms in the same period.
According to analysts, consumers tend to find more expensive June dishes due to a combination of factors this year.
One of them is the rise in food production costs, from the countryside to the cities. Inputs started to cost more in the pandemic, and spending on food transport rose amid the fuel boom in Brazil.
The weather has also put some pressure on prices in recent months, as extreme weather has damaged crops. There was drought in the South, in addition to heavy rains in the Southeast and Northeast. With the reduced supply, part of the prices increased.
Finally, agricultural commodities, including corn, soybeans and wheat, appreciated in the international market, which contributed to the pressures along the production chains.
“It’s a burst of inflation”, says economist Jackson Bittencourt, coordinator of the economics course at PUC-PR (Pontifical Catholic University of Paraná).
He adds that the War in Ukraine also had an impact on the rise of commodities such as wheat, raw material for bread, pasta and cakes.
“We are living in a moment of high inflation. Thus, it is even natural that foodstuffs accompany the rise in prices”, points out economist Luca Mercadante, from Rio Bravo Investimentos.
After the restrictions forced by the pandemic, the year 2022 marks the resumption of June parties that usually attract crowds.
The Ministry of Tourism says that the events should generate around R$ 2 billion in the main destinations in the country in the period. Municipalities in the Northeast such as Campina Grande (PB) and Caruaru (PE) are part of this list.
“The two great events in the Northeast are Carnival and São João. The return of the festivities is fundamental for the local economy”, says economist Werton Oliveira, from the consultancy Ekonomy, in João Pessoa (PB).
He also associates the advance in the price of food typical of the June festivals to factors such as adverse weather, high production costs and the appreciation of commodities.
Pressured prices throughout the year
In the view of economists, the tendency is for food prices to remain under pressure throughout this year, but with less intense advances than those seen in recent months.
“Monetary policy [com aumento de juros] should have more effects on inflation in the second half of the year. Thus, the perspective is that inflation generally decelerates”, says Mercadante, from Rio Bravo.
The economist, however, believes that there are still risks in the case of food. “We may have new uncertainties with possible supply shocks due to the weather and the Ukrainian War.”
Bittencourt, from PUC-PR, follows the same line. According to him, risks remain on the radar, but it is possible that the food shortage will slow down.
“The trend is that prices begin to rise with less intensity.”
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