Why projection puts oil at $380, Crypto market dispute and what matters in the market

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Oil in the “stratospheric” $380?

Brent barrel prices could rise to “stratospheric” $380 (R$2,019) in the context of the ceiling on the price of Russian oil discussed by the G7 and considering a retaliation from the Kremlin.

The calculation considers the worst-case scenario mapped by JPMorgan analysts.

Understand: In a statement last week, G7 leaders agreed to discuss imposing a cap on the price of Russian oil as a way to make it difficult to finance the country’s invasion of Ukrainian territory.

• This limit could be applied with the restriction for the insurance of Russian vessels from a price or with the threat of direct sanctions to the purchasing countries, but this has not been defined.

• In response, Russia said in a threatening tone that these measures could lead to an imbalance in the market and raise prices of the commodity.

JPMorgan’s calculations: when considering a Kremlin retaliation with the reduction of oil exports, analysts draw two scenarios:

• Cutting three million barrels of oil per day (bpd), which would drive prices to $190 (R$ 1,009) per barrel.

• Reduction of five million bpd, which would make Brent jump to $380.

Yes but… Fearing further inflationary pressure, the European Union is treating the matter with caution.

• The commodity, which reached US$ 123 (R$ 652) at the highest of the year, is currently traded at around US$ 110 (R$ 583). On Monday night, Brent was in $113 (R$599), up from 1.7%.

Legal dispute in the crypto market

A dispute between Binance, the world’s largest crypto exchange, and its former service provider Capitual, motivated the TJ-SP (Court of Justice of São Paulo) to determine the blocking of approximately BRL 451.6 million on assets of the payment institution.

Understand the case: Capitual has been acting since mid-2020 as a midfielder between Binance and Brazilian banks in the conversion of crypto assets into reais, as the brokerage is based in Lithuania.

• Capitual claims that Binance would have refused to conform to a BC rule, valid since June 16. It requires companies to individually identify clients operating on crypto trading platforms.

• The intermediary then stopped operating the withdrawals and deposits of Binance customers in Brazil, which caused the broker to file a request to block the amounts in court, claiming that it was prevented from accessing them.

• Binance says that Capitual is no longer its payment provider and that transactions (deposits and withdrawals) will be back to normal soon when Latam Gateway, its new partner, is integrated into the platform.

What the capital says: the platform claims that its other partner exchanges KuCoin and Huobi have adapted to BC’s requirements and the services provided to its users in transactions happen regularly.

What Binance says: the broker reinforced that customers have alternatives to make transfers to the platform – with Pix and bank transfers – and to make withdrawals, with the option “sell to card” available for Visa.

In the midst of the dispute, a bill is pending in Congress to regulate crypto transactions and to expand control over criminal activities. THE Sheet showed that the draft report in the Chamber loosens this control.

Parallel dollar soars in Argentina with exchange in the economy

The first business day since the exchange in charge of the Argentine Ministry of Economy was marked by the soaring of the parallel dollar, called “blue”, which went from 236 pesos (R$ 9.93) for almost 267 (R$ 11.24), an increase of around 14%.

The official dollar, which faces strict capital control measures, remained in 125 pesos (BRL 5.26).

Understand: the clandestine currency is used as a reference by traders and businessmen to promote increases, with the exception of foods that have frozen values.

• The currency’s rise should put even more pressure on Argentine inflation, which in May reached 60% accumulated over 12 months.

Turbulent exchange: on Saturday (2), Martín Guzmán resigned under pressure from the Kirchnerist wing of the government. His biggest mission in the ministry was to renegotiate the debt of more than $44 billion (R$ 233 billion) that the country has with the IMF.

• Vice President Cristina Kirchner rejected her name because Guzmán prioritized adjustments in tariffs and greater rigor in public spending, while Cristina is an advocate of more state intervention in the economy.

the substitute: Silvina Batakis was minister of the same portfolio in the Province of Buenos Aires between 2011 and 2015 and is more closely linked to the vice president, being an advocate of fewer cuts in public spending and more subsidies for energy tariffs.

everyone wants to play

Packed by an ecosystem that involves not only games and consoles, but also content production and sports competitions, the games market must move US$ 203.1 billion (R$ 1 trillion) in 2022, according to consultancy Newzoo.

With an eye on the capillarity and money that surrounds the sector, banks, investment funds and even singer Anitta launch products to talk to this audience.

What explains: the gamer is an enthusiast and dedicates hours a day to the activity. Characteristics that make the eyes of the marketing and advertising departments of big brands shine, trying to get closer to this segment.

In numbers: the sector moves about BRL 10 billion per year in Brazil and has double-digit annual growth.

How brands and personalities try to reach – and profit from – the gamer universe:

Banks and Brokers: In March, Itaú launched the Player’s Bank, which offers advantages to players, such as cashback at game stores, and provides assistance through Discord. More than a million people have already applied for an account opening.

• Santander and Banco do Brasil offer consortia for the purchase of gaming computers. XP also has an investment fund aimed at companies in the sector.

Drinks and fast food chains: Coca-Cola launched this year the Byte flavor of the soda. TNT and Red Bull are present at industry events. Burger King has a food line in partnership with LOUD, the eSports team.

Personalities: singer Anitta released on Wednesday (29) the song “Tropa”, in partnership with the mobile game “Free Fire”. The single promotes the release of the character “A Patroa” in the game.

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