Market sees inflation target burst in 2022 and 2023, shows Focus

The market calculates the Selic base interest rate at 13.75% at the end of this year and at 10.50% in 2023, with inflation bursting the target ceiling in both periods, according to the Focus survey that the Central Bank announced this Friday (8), when resuming the publication with the end, this week, of the strike of servers.

BC republished Focus after a hiatus of more than a month. The last time the full survey was published was on May 2, and on June 6 a partial update of the survey was released.

This Friday, the monetary authority published the update of the weekly reports from May 6 to July 1, and, next Monday (11), the disclosure calendar returns to normal.

The survey, which captures the market’s perception of economic indicators, pointed out that the most recent expectation for the basic Selic interest rate at the end of this year remained at 13.75% for the second week in a row. But for next year, the forecast of monetary tightening has intensified, since the calculation in the previous week was for a rate of 10.25%.

The accounts for the rise of the IPCA had divergent movements. The forecast inflation calculation for 2022 increased from 8.27% to 7.96% on July 1st, while for 2023 the account rose from 4.91% in the previous week to 5.01%, in the 13th consecutive increase.

Both remain above the ceiling of their respective objectives — the center of the official inflation target for 2022 is 3.5% and, for 2023, it is 3.25%, always with a tolerance margin of 1.5 percentage points for so-so.

For GDP (Gross Domestic Product), the estimate for growth this year is 1.51%, having suffered an upward adjustment of 0.01 percentage point from one week to another. For 2023, the projection of a 0.50% expansion of the economy remains the same for the second time.