The dollar opened this Friday (15) lower against the real, following the cooling of the US currency abroad after a recent jump, although economic concerns remained on the radar after weak data from China and the prospect of a possible rise in ultra-low interest rates. -aggressive in the United States.
At 9:02 am (GMT), the spot dollar retreated 0.52%, to R$ 5.4045 on sale.
On B3, at 9:02 am (GMT), the first-maturity dollar futures contract dropped 0.29% to R$5.4290 reais.
This Thursday (14), the day after inflation in the United States renewed the highest high in four decades, markets bet that the Fed (Federal Reserve, the American central bank) will promote an even more aggressive interest rate hike than the expected.
The credit crunch is intended to stop the rise in prices in the world’s main economy, but the side effect could be a global recession. It is a perception that causes widespread devaluation of company shares and depreciation of raw materials.
During the day, oil reached its lowest value since the outbreak of the Ukrainian War. The barrel of Brent came to be below US$ 95 (R$ 518). There was a recovery in the late afternoon, and the commodity closed close to stability (fall of 0.47%), quoted at US$ 99.10 (R$ 543).
The context of greater monetary tightening in the US and fear of a global recession is adverse for emerging markets, which are heavily dependent on commodities, such as Brazil.
The Brazilian Stock Exchange fell this Thursday to its lowest score in 20 months. With a loss of 1.80% on the day, the Ibovespa index plunged to 96,212 points, its lowest level since November 3, 2020.
In the United States, the start of the earnings season helped the New York stock market get off the lows recorded throughout the day. Even so, the benchmark S&P 500 was down 0.30%. The Dow Jones, which tracks high-value companies, lost 0.46%.
On the other hand, the technology sector represented by the Nasdaq index showed a slight increase of 0.03%.
In addition to looking abroad, investors in the Brazilian market also weighed in on the approval of the PEC (proposed amendment to the Constitution) that expands social benefits in an election year.
By increasing spending in the face of a scenario of global inflation and the risk of recession, the measure could create obstacles to the execution of the Budget in 2023, considering a scenario of loss of revenue.
An indicator that reflects distrust in Brazil is the so-called country risk, measured by the CDS, the Credit Default Swap, a type of contract that protects investors against defaults.
The CDS contracts for five years renewed a new high this Thursday and reached 329 points. It is the highest since May 2020, when risk perception soared due to the start of the pandemic.
with Reuters
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