Gasoline drops another 6.4% at stations and returns to June 2021 level

The average price of gasoline at Brazilian stations dropped another 6.4% this week, returning to the level of June 2021, in inflation-adjusted values. The government is trying to reduce even further, pressuring Petrobras to follow the recent drop in international oil prices.

According to the ANP (National Agency for Petroleum, Gas and Biofuels), the liter of gasoline was sold, on average, at R$ 6.07 per liter this week. It is an accumulated drop of 17.8%, or R$ 1.32 per liter, since the federal government and states began to lower taxes.

The reduction is still smaller than expected by the government, which speaks of R$ 1.55 per liter. To try to force the transfers, President Jair Bolsonaro (PL) edited a decree last week determining that the posts publish the values ​​in force before the tax cuts.

The cheapest gasoline was detected by the ANP in Macapá (AP), at R$ 5.15 per liter. The most expensive was detected in Tefé (AM), at R$ 8.10 per liter.

The government and allies pressure Petrobras to cut prices at refineries, following the drop in international oil prices. At the beginning of this Friday’s trading session (15), the average price practiced by Brazilian refineries was R$ 0.31 per liter above the import parity.

It is the fourth consecutive day that Brazilian gasoline is more expensive than the estimated cost of importing the product, according to projections by Abicom (Brazilian Association of Fuel Importers).

Even so, experts in the sector consider that the period was not enough to compensate for the months of selling the product at a lower price than international quotations. In addition, the market still sees great uncertainties about price behavior.

This Friday (15), for example, the price of Brent oil, an international benchmark traded in London, closed up 2.07%, at US$ 101.16 (R$ 546) per barrel. In the week, however, the commodity accumulates a fall of 5.47%.

The drop is justified by fears that high inflation will send the global economy into recession, reducing demand for fuel and energy. The bank Goldman Sachs, however, points out that the fundamentals still show tightness in the offer of the product.

“The chances of a global recession are indeed growing, but it is premature for the oil market to succumb to such concerns,” analysts at the bank wrote in a report released on Wednesday. For them, the expectation is still for increased consumption, especially with the end of lockdowns in China.

The decision to increase or cut fuel prices is made by a committee made up of the president of Petrobras, Caio Paes de Andrade, and the directors of Commercialization and Logistics, Cláudio Mastella, and Finance, Rodrigo Araújo.

Paes de Andrade took office at the end of June with the mission of trying to secure readjustments, but he has not yet promoted changes in the board, which was formed by General Joaquim Silva e Luna and is more resistant to government interventions in the management of the company.

The board of directors also maintains a more independent composition, at least until the next assembly, which should elect a group more aligned with President Bolsonaro and with leaders from the center.

Also benefiting from the federal and state tax cuts, hydrous ethanol was sold, on average, at R$ 4.41 per liter this week, 2.4% below the value verified the previous week.

​Since the new rates took effect, the price of the product has fallen by 9.4%.

With less effect from the most recent laws, the price of diesel fell 0.5% this week, to an average of R$ 7.48 per litre. The fuel already had zero federal taxes and does not feel the impact of the ICMS ceiling, since most states already practiced lower rates than those established by law.