Center-South reservoirs fill more than expected in October

The hydroelectric reservoirs in the Southeast and Center-West regions filled more than expected in October, reflecting the rains that fell across the country in recent weeks. The forecast is that the volume of rain will remain above average in November.

According to the ONS (National Electric System Operator), the level of the reservoirs in these two regions, considered the water tank of the Brazilian electricity sector, closed October at 18.2%, 1.5 percentage points above that recorded at the end of September .

In early October, the ONS expected reservoirs in these regions to close the month at 12.8%. With the arrival of rains during the month, the forecast was being revised upwards. Last week it was 17.8%.

In the South, the result for the month was even better: an increase of 23.4 percentage points, with the level reaching 52% at the end of October. Earlier this month, the ONS spoke at 49.8%.

The North and Northeast reservoirs had a drop of 14.5 and 3.9 percentage points in October, but the good result of the other regions made the average level of the reservoirs of the national interconnected system to close the month at 25.3%, high 1.2 percentage point.

In its monthly operation schedule, the ONS sees maintenance of the recovery scenario in the main basins in November. In the Southeast and Midwest subsystem, the volume of rainfall should reach 106% of the historical average, raising the level of reservoirs to 18.7% at the end of the month.

In the South, with below-average rainfall, the level should drop to 45.6%. The Northeast should also have below average rainfall, closing the month with 35.9% of the energy storage capacity, down 0.7 percentage point.

The improvement in the scenario reduces the risk of blackouts due to lack of capacity to meet demand, but experts have been warning that the system’s operation still requires attention, as levels remain very low, especially in the Southeast and Midwest.

With the recovery, energy prices continue to decline. The marginal operating cost, which guides the operations of the ONS, fell 41.56% last week, to R$ 94.09 per MWh (megawatt-hour). The settlement price of operations in the free energy market reached a weekly average of R$161.22 per MWh, against R$177.38 in the previous week.

Although the drop in prices has contributed to the change in the tariff flag charged from tariff customers to the cheaper yellow level, most consumers should not see impacts on their electricity bills at this time, as the government continues to activate the entire park thermal available.

Energy pricing models have been criticized by specialists and large consumers for failing to portray the dimension of the energy crisis when they perceive more intensely the forecast of rain than the level of the reservoirs.

The government has even been negotiating a new loan to the electricity sector to cover the hole caused by the increase in the prices of fuels used by thermal plants, since the R$ 14.20 per 100 kWh (kilowatt-hour) of the water scarcity tariff flag it no longer pays for all the necessary generation.