Sales of light and heavy vehicles had a small recovery between October and November. 172,964 units were sold in the last month, an increase of 6.5% compared to the previous month. The calculation was based on Renavan (National Register of Automotive Vehicles).
The result may even look encouraging, but the comparison with last year shows how much expectations were frustrated.
In November 2020, 225,010 vehicles were registered (sum of passenger cars, light commercial vehicles, buses and trucks). The industry was celebrating what seemed to be the new normal: monthly sales in excess of 200,000 units.
The reality, however, is a drop of 23.1% compared to last month.
Problems with parts supply persist, and December, historically the best of the year, should end with yet another disappointing result.
Over the year, 1.91 million vehicles have already been sold, an increase of 5.4% over the same period in 2020. It is well below the forecast in January, when Anfavea (the automakers association) expected a growth of 15 % on license plates.
Considering exports, the organization believed that manufacturing would increase by 25% this year.
With the bad results followed, Anfavea made repeated revisions of expectations. A month ago, it started betting on two different scenarios for production.
The optimistic view considered that, if there was a regularization of the supply of semiconductors, around 570 thousand vehicles would have to leave the factories between October and December. Thus, the year would close with 2.219 million light and heavy vehicles produced, an increase of 10% compared to 2020.
In the most conservative view, production would be 2.129 million units, an increase of 6% compared to last year.
Apparently, not even the pessimistic forecast will be achieved. There are only a few working days to finish the year: factories that are not stopped due to lack of parts must take collective vacations in the last two weeks of December.
Based on current results, the Fiat brand, which is part of the Stellantis group, will close the year as the market leader. The post belonged to Chevrolet in 2020, but General Motors was the company that suffered most from the lack of semiconductors.
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