The complexity and dynamism of business decisions are increasing. Not a few topics are included in corporate strategic planning, from which investment decisions, portfolio allocation or competitive strategy are derived.
Factors that were seen as very distant or with low impact and relevance are increasingly weighing on the numerous discussions in which I participate: demography, global warming, geopolitics, macroeconomic and regulatory risks.
When mentioned, the numbers of global population estimates are frightening. We are 7.8 billion people inhabiting the planet in 2022, we will be 8.5 billion in 2030 and 10.4 billion at the turn of the century, when the population tends to stabilize and start to fall. However, population growth accelerates in the poorest 46 countries, while advanced economies will only see some increase with immigration. It is inevitable to deduce that income inequalities tend to increase exponentially, leading to growing social instability.
There is greater energy and food insecurity. The dispute over natural resources reveals itself in geopolitical frictions and in the surprising shocks in energy and food prices resulting from the recent war between Russia and Ukraine. The world tends to appear more insecure and to intensify migratory flows. In an emblematic way, Europe will face the next winter without energy security and poor countries are increasingly experiencing the problem of hunger.
Such pressure of demand for more natural resources already has repercussions, in addition to prices, on global warming. In this aspect, health insecurity grew, with the emergence of new diseases from the loss of biodiversity with the human incursion into natural areas. The frequency of epidemics tends to increase, bringing to mind the impacts of the Covid shock two years ago.
In addition to the tragic loss of life, a result of this process was the increase in macroeconomic risk, with the return of inflation and living with higher interest rates. In addition to demand deviations, rapid savings accumulation and disaccumulation, unprecedented fiscal and monetary impulses, the intensification of geopolitical disputes fed back into production chain breaks. The level of uncertainty over which the new equilibrium that will prevail after the dissipation of so many simultaneous shocks has risen. But one thing is certain: the creation of artificial wealth due to extraordinary liquidity will undergo adjustments, with or without disruptions. Financial markets will not go unpunished.
Challenges on the one hand, opportunities on the other. Brazil, also affected by the risks, is one of the countries with the greatest diversity in the production of raw materials, whether metallic, energy or food. It is at an advanced stage in the demographic transition, with greater stability in urbanization movements, for example. It has one of the most renewable energy sources on the planet, with less dependence on fossil fuels. And a consumer market that tends to reach 230 million people in a few decades, with a great scarcity of infrastructure.
Sectors producing and distributing increasingly scarce raw materials are potential relative winners. But there is also great potential in infrastructure and consumption. However, it will not be possible to reap benefits if the risks that surround them are neglected.
A first risk is the speed of technological changes, which have affected both rural, industrial and service production. This factor impacts the need for training of workers and the behavior of consumers. The education and public health systems in Brazil have responded poorly. An increasing number of companies adopt the initiative of directing their own resources to form a more diverse, healthy body of collaborators, able to respond more quickly to the demands —each day more demanding— of consumers.
The impact of the rapid adoption of new technologies is the lower absorption of labor. In the absence of targeted public policies and greater entrepreneurship, there may be an increase in structural unemployment and a fueling of inequalities and social instability. It is always important to remember that social stability is a key element for investment decisions.
Thus, professional education and health services continue to represent an avenue of opportunity. Making rules flexible to attract high skills from abroad would help speed up the process of adapting the Brazilian labor market to new trends and opportunities. It is a race for those who best capture consumer preferences, which tends to grow for a long time, and manages to serve them and retain their customers and employees.
Another risk is the macroeconomic one, which, depending on developments, could represent living with higher (neutral) interest rates, more frequent and more pronounced economic cycles. More unstable economic scenarios will contribute to an increasingly shorter life cycle for businesses that are unable to adapt to these dynamics.
Although it seems something distant, they are elements that weigh more and more in the annual planning of the businesses, which are engaged in improving their decision-making process and the quality of management, demanding better quality public policies, and contributing more directly to the improvement of good. -being in the surroundings.
Attention to global risks is about ensuring, more than ever, a strategic positioning aimed at business survival.
I have over 8 years of experience in the news industry. I have worked for various news websites and have also written for a few news agencies. I mostly cover healthcare news, but I am also interested in other topics such as politics, business, and entertainment. In my free time, I enjoy writing fiction and spending time with my family and friends.
