The market continued the downward trend in the projection for this year’s inflation, while seeing greater pressure in 2023, according to the Focus survey released by the Central Bank this Monday (8), which showed that there is still no expectation. further monetary tightening in 2022.
The weekly survey of a hundred economists showed that, despite the BC’s indication that it will assess the need to end its aggressive monetary tightening cycle with a smaller adjustment in September, there has been no change in expectations that the Selic will end this year at the current rates. 13.75% and 2023 at 11.00%.
The survey, which captures the market’s perception of economic indicators, pointed out that the expectation for the IPCA high in 2022 was adjusted by 0.04 percentage point downwards, to 7.11%. On the other hand, the outlook for next year increased by 0.03 point to 5.36%.
For 2024, the year that has now been incorporated into the relevant horizon of monetary policy, the weekly survey showed that the expectation of a 3.3% increase in prices is maintained, for the fourth time in a row.
The center of the official inflation target for 2022 is 3.5% and for 2023 it is 3.25%, while for 2024 it drops to 3.0%, always with a tolerance margin of 1.5 percentage points for so-so.
The adjustments are made after the BC raised the Selic to 13.75% last week. More indications about the path of monetary policy can be given in the minutes of the meeting, to be released on Tuesday (9).
The BC now sees the IPCA at 6.8% at the end of this year, 4.6% in 2023 and 2.7% in 2024. These estimates by the monetary authority already incorporate tax cuts approved by Congress, which will be partially reversed in January.
Among the measures that reduce inflation in the short term are the temporary cut of the tax on gasoline and ethanol and the definition of a ceiling for charging ICMS on fuel, electricity, telecommunications and public transport.
In view of these measures, the expected deflation in Focus for administered prices in 2022 is now 0.92%, against a fall of 0.75% calculated before. For 2023, the outlook has increased for the 13th time in a row, by 0.02 percentage point, to 7.10%.
On Tuesday, the IBGE releases IPCA data for July, with an expectation of deflation in the month thanks to these measures.
For GDP (Gross Domestic Product), this year’s growth estimate was adjusted upward by 0.01 point, to 1.98%, but remained at 0.40% for 2023.
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