Former President Lula (PT) has 56% of voting intentions in the first round among people who receive Auxílio Brasil or live with someone who is a beneficiary of the program, according to a Datafolha survey. President Jair Bolsonaro (PL) has 28% among these voters. Beneficiaries of the income distribution program represent one in four Brazilians.
Among voters from families that are not in the program, the difference is smaller: 44% and 34%, respectively, for Lula and Bolsonaro.
The current president has advanced among these beneficiaries. It scored 20% in the late May survey, 22% in late July, 26% in July and 28% in this latest survey. Lula had 59% in May and June, 53% in July and now has 56%.
The new poll showed that, considering all those interviewed, the former president has 47% of the votes, compared to 32% for the current holder of the Planalto. Among people with an income of up to two minimum wages, the PT has 55%, compared to 23% of the second place.
Considering four federal programs that were created or had these expenditures increased on the eve of the election, 26% of respondents are in residence covered.
According to Datafolha, 25% receive Auxílio Brasil or live with someone who is a beneficiary of this program. The federal Gas Valley reaches 8% of the people consulted. Benefits for truck drivers and taxi drivers appear at 1% each.
According to the schedule of Auxílio Brasil, a program that replaced the old Bolsa Família, the first installment of the benefit increased to R$ 600 will be released from August 9 to 22. That is, not all families have received the new value so far.
The BEM Caminhoneiro started to be paid on the 9th, for those who registered until the 22nd of July. Taxi Assistance began to be paid last Tuesday (16th) to more than 245,000 drivers who registered until August 2nd and received R$ 2,000.
In order to pay these four benefits at their current rates, a few months before the election, Congress changed the Constitution, allowing it to disregard the spending ceiling and electoral legislation, in a government maneuver seen as mainly electoral, as shown by a previous Datafolha survey.
63% of beneficiaries would choose Lula if the 2nd round were today
Considering only valid votes in the first round, Lula has 60% of the intentions among beneficiaries of the aid, compared to 30% for Bolsonaro.
In an eventual second round between the two, Lula would win by 63% to 30% among beneficiaries and by 51% to 39% in the other group.
The rejection of the current president is practically the same among those who are or are not in families covered by the program (52% and 51%, respectively). In relation to PT, the rate is 26% among beneficiaries and 41% among other voters.
According to the survey, the weight of Auxílio Brasil is greater for women: 29% are in covered families, compared to 19% among men. It is also more present in the income bracket of up to two minimum wages (38%), in the North and Northeast (39% in both regions) and among the unemployed (48%).
Of those who do not receive the aid, 16% are in the Single Registry, 76% are not and 8% did not know how to respond.
The institute heard 5,744 voters in 281 cities from Tuesday (16), the date of the beginning of the street campaign, until Thursday (18). The research, contracted by Folha and TV Globo, was registered with the Superior Electoral Court under the number BR-09404/2022.
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