Economy sees the need to cut costs even with PEC

Technicians from the Ministry of Economy updated their internal projections for next year’s Budget and now calculate that, in addition to not having space in the spending ceiling for more expenses (such as truck assistance), a cut of R$ 2 will be necessary. .6 billion in discretionary spending.

The calculations show that, of the total of BRL 106 billion in budget space generated by the PEC (proposal to amend the Constitution) of the Precatório, BRL 42.2 billion will be used with expenses without choice.

Among them, the increases in expenses corrected for inflation (such as pensions and BPC, the continued benefit benefit) and the traditional individual and bench amendments (which necessarily increase as expenses rise).

In addition, BRL 6.5 billion will be used for mandatory spending on discretionary spending by the Ministry of Health and the FNDCT (National Fund for Scientific and Technological Development).

The remainder, R$ 57.2 billion, was what would be left over for primary expenses with an option to be chosen by the Executive. But the space is already surpassed by the Auxílio Brasil program (which will use another R$ 54.6 billion of the space created by the PEC) and the payroll exemption (R$ 5.3 billion).

Adding the two programs (Auxílio Brasil and tax relief), there is an overflow of R$ 2.6 billion in the spending ceiling.

According to technicians at the Ministry of Economy, this boom will be offset by cutting discretionary expenses. What they are will depend on a decision yet to be made.

The accounts with Auxílio Brasil are designed to serve 17.9 million families, and not the 21.6 million estimated by government calculations – which would raise the demand for resources with the program to more than R$ 100 billion in 2022.

The Chamber initially established that there could be no waiting lines in the program and raised the poverty line from R$200 to R$210. With that, the number of families served would go from the approximately 17 million that the government originally calculated to 20 million (according to initial Chamber estimates).

This, in itself, would raise the program’s bill by R$ 10 billion — as shown by sheet. But the Senate added a section to the bill, effectively authorizing the program to have queues. As a result, the budget for Auxílio Brasil will be below what would be necessary to serve the entire poor population.

The calculations are made considering that there will be a space of BRL 15 billion to BRL 16 billion for the so-called rapporteur amendments, through which the government of Jair Bolsonaro directs resources to the allied base with little transparency on which congressman is covered or where the resources go.

The general rapporteur of the 2022 Budget, Deputy Hugo Leal (PSD-RJ), presented on Friday (3) a preliminary opinion in which he determines 20 national schedules to receive resources from the rapporteur’s amendments (known by the RP9 code) will have a ceiling of BRL 16.2 billion next year, a little lower than this year’s allocation (BRL 16.8 billion).

Guedes said in recent days that the amendments by the budget rapporteur, through which the government of Jair Bolsonaro transfers funds to allied parliamentarians, are used to generate support for the Executive and to pass reforms.

The rapporteur’s amendments are targeted by the STF (Supreme Federal Court) – which suspended the execution of the instruments and demanded public details about them. In response, Congress said it had no way of complying with the decision.

Last month, the Federal Police asked the STF to launch an inquiry to determine whether there were irregularities in the payment of amendments by the rapporteur to deputies and senators. The corporation told the court that it deems it necessary to investigate whether there was illicit use of public money to pay these amounts for the purchase of tractors and agricultural machinery.

The numbers, including the rapporteur’s amendments, are calculated considering the perspective that the Precatório PEC will be approved in Congress and make room for new expenses. If the rapporteur’s amendments were cut, a smaller amount of budget expansion via PEC would be necessary.

Although critics of the PEC claim that it makes room for a snowballed debt, economic experts argue that these resources will be paid on a large scale through federal assets (the PEC provides that such assets, which include state-owned shares and even federal land, are used as a bargaining chip to pay off debts).

More than R$ 1 trillion in federal assets are calculated to be transferred to the private sector in exchange for court orders — which, according to Guedes’ plan, will accelerate the reduction in the size of the State that he intends.