Meat consumption by Brazilians is expected to reach 95.3 kilos per capita next year. The volume exceeds this year’s, which was 92.6 kg, but only returns to the level of 2021.
The fall in income in the country causes a substitution of proteins, with the consumer going in search of a more affordable product.
In 2019, Brazilians consumed 33.9 kilos of beef. The Chinese appetite for the Brazilian product made the price soar, and beef lost competitiveness in the domestic market, in relation to the others.
Next year, even with a 1.1% recovery in relation to the amount consumed this year, consumers will buy 25.9 kg per person.
Pork, on the other hand, has gained a greater preference. The level of domestic consumption of this protein increased 19% in six years, despite the growth of exports to China.
Due to African swine fever, the Chinese, the main producers and consumers of pork in the world, had to reduce their herd.
The same trend occurs with chicken meat. In the last six years, the Brazilian consumer has increased the annual purchase of this protein by 13%.
The data are from Conab (National Supply Company) which, for the first time, incorporated proteins into the perspectives of agricultural production, consumption and exports in the company’s annual statistics.
The scenario for the coming year is quite challenging for proteins, but the beef sector, due to the continuity of external demand, will have positive margins.
The production grows 2.9% and goes to 8.7 million tons. Exports, in the assessment of Conab, rise 5%, to 3.1 million tons.
Pig farming and poultry farming will have even more challenging scenarios and will depend a lot on the grain super-harvest expected for the country. Production costs remain high in these sectors, and margins can be negative.
Sergio De Zen, director of Agricultural Information and Agricultural Policies at Conab, highlights that the scenario for swine farming is very different from that of other meats.
The sector was very dependent on the Russian market a few years ago. Now, Brazilian exports are concentrated in China. The other proteins have a wider range of importing countries from Brazil.
2023 pork exports improve compared to this year, a period in which China put on the brakes on purchases of the Brazilian product.
For the next year, Conab forecasts foreign sales of 1.18 million tons, with growth of 9%.
In the poultry sector, meat production rises to 15.6 million tons, up 2.5%, but exports fall to 4.48 million, a decline of 1.7%.
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