Vaivém: Milk has record price in the field in August

Milk has never been so expensive in the countryside as at the beginning of the second half of the year. The raw material delivered by the producer to the industry, in July, whose payment is made this month, rose to R$ 3.57 per liter, according to an average value of seven producing states.

In relation to July, the real increase was 11.8%. In some states, as in Espírito Santo —which is not in the average of the seven —, the evolution of the month reached 20.7%, according to data from Cepea (Center for Advanced Studies in Applied Economics).

With this high in August, the average price of milk registers the highest level, in real terms, since 2004, when the entity started the research. Just this year, milk has already accumulated a real evolution of 60.7%.

With so much acceleration in the field, the increase reaches the pockets of consumers. This month’s FGV IGP-M indicated milk as one of the main factors driving up wholesale inflation. The “in natura” milk rose 13%, and the long life, 9.27% ​​in the month.

The rise in prices is due to a low availability of product in the market. This drop in supply is related to changes in the behavior of producers and the severe drought in the period.

With high costs, there have been fewer investments by producers in recent years and, consequently, a drop in supply, according to Natália Grigol, a researcher at Cepea.

Production is below expectations, and the dispute for the product between industries takes prices to this record value.

The scenario, however, changes from September, according to the researcher. Prices have risen too much, demand has fallen, and milk values ​​are already settling in at retail. With this, the industries will pay less for the product in the field.

In addition, the rapid rise in prices and a decline in the cost of feed led producers to resume production. The supply scenario may have an even greater improvement because the return of the rains develops more pastures.

Weakened demand, growing imports —in July they increased by 27%— and recovery in field production will cause a sharp drop in field prices in September, according to Natalia.

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