INSS ceiling could reach R$ 7,612 in 2023

The ceiling for pensions and other INSS (National Social Security Institute) benefits may rise from the current BRL 7,087.22 to BRL 7,612.38 in 2023, according to the inflation forecast for this year —7.41%—, which appears in the 2023 Budget, filed in Congress this Wednesday (31).

In the budget piece, the government predicts that the minimum wage will be R$ 1,302, the same amount to be paid to insured persons who receive the floor of social security benefits, including retirement, pensions, aid and the BPC (Benefit of Continued Provision) paid to people with disabilities and the elderly with an income of up to a quarter of the minimum wage per person in the family.

The official readjustment, however, will only be known in January 2023, when the IBGE (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics) publishes this year’s final inflation. Social Security benefits are adjusted based on the INPC (National Consumer Price Index) of the previous year. In 2022, the final adjustment was announced by the government only on January 20th.

For this year, the government is forecasting an inflation of 7.41%. Although economists believe in a fall in the index, the forecast for the rise in prices has not changed between the LDO (Budget Guidelines Law) and the Budget Law.

In 12 months until July this year, the INPC is at 10.12%, according to the IBGE. In July, the index had a deflation of 0.60% compared to May, driven by the drop in fuel prices after the ICMS (Tax on the Circulation of Goods and Services) was cut.

The variation of the INPC, which is the inflation of lower-income families, was the lowest since the beginning of the historical series, which took effect in April 1979.

See how much retirement can go to in 2023

Benefit floor continues without real adjustment

Like the minimum wage, the floor of social security benefits remains without real adjustment — above inflation — since 2019. That year, the government raised the minimum based on a higher inflation forecast. In the end, the index was lower than expected, but there was no way to correct the value that was already being applied in the country downwards.

The minimum proposed by the government represents BRL 90 more than the current floor of BRL 1,212, and is also BRL 8 above the BRL 1,294 initially planned in April this year.

The policy of valuing the minimum wage, which takes into account the inflation of the previous year plus the GDP (Gross Domestic Product) of two years before, was valid in the country between 2006 and 2019.

The above-inflation readjustment was implemented by Lula and enacted by Dilma Rousseff, valid only until 2019. The Bolsonaro government ended the valuation.

The actual readjustment of the minimum was interrupted in the administration of Michel Temer (PMDB). According to the law, when there was no growth or when the GDP was negative, the index used in the minimum formula, in addition to inflation, was zero.