Economic analysts slightly raised their forecasts for GDP (Gross Domestic Product) this year and next, according to the first Central Bank Focus survey released after IBGE figures showed that the Brazilian economy grew more than expected in the second quarter. of the year.
The survey, carried out by the BC with around 100 institutions, also revealed an increase in expectations for the Selic level next year, at the same time that estimates for inflation suffered a small decline.
Analysts expect GDP to grow 2.26% this year and 0.47% in 2023, up from the median of the previous week’s projections of 2.10% and 0.37%, respectively.
In the second quarter, GDP rose 1.2% compared to the previous three months, after growing 1.1% between January and March. The result, released last Thursday (1st), was above expectations in a Reuters poll of a 0.9% gain and showed acceleration in growth since the 0.3% decline seen in the second quarter of 2021.
The new Focus survey pointed to a reduction in the median of projections for the IPCA for 2022 to 6.61%, from 6.70% before. For next year, expectations for consumer inflation dropped to 5.27% from 5.30%.
Petrobras announced on Thursday (1st) another reduction in the prices of gasoline sold to distributors, of 7%, in the fourth consecutive cut since mid-July, confirming the indication given by President Jair Bolsonaro on the eve, a month ago of the elections, about “good news” to consumers.
The projection for the basic interest rate at the end of this year was maintained at 13.75%, which is the level in force today, but for 2023 the median of expectations has risen to 11.25%, from 11% before.
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