The Ministry of Economy reduced its inflation estimate for this year from 7.2% to 6.3%. For 2023, the projection remained at 4.5%.
As for GDP (Gross Domestic Product) growth, the ministry raised its forecast of a rise from 2% to 2.7% in 2022 and maintained the expectation of a 2.5% advance next year, as anticipated by the Sheet.
The projections released this Thursday (15) are in the Macrofiscal Bulletin, updated bimonthly by the SPE (Secretariat of Economic Policy). Previous data had been announced by the ministry in July and are periodically reviewed.
After two consecutive months of deflation (drop in prices) driven by the reduction of ICMS rates on fuel and electricity, the IPCA (Broad Consumer Price Index) has accumulated a high of 8.73% in 12 months.
In August, the country’s official inflation index dropped 0.36%, according to data released by the IBGE (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics) last Friday (9).
The new estimate for inflation for this year is lower than the data released in March, of 6.55%. The lower projection for 2022 incorporates the impact of approved legislative measures on fuel, electricity, transport and telecommunications prices.
At the end of June, Congress set a ceiling of 17% to 18% for the collection of ICMS on these items considered “essential”, in addition to having approved a cut in federal taxes on gasoline and ethanol.
The expectation of 6.3% for the IPCA exceeds the target to be pursued by the Central Bank this year. The value set by the CMN (Conselho Monetário Nacional) for 2022 is 3.5% — with a 1.5 percentage point of tolerance up or down.
As of 2024, the government expects inflation to converge to the 3% target.
The Ministry of Economy’s estimate for the INPC (National Consumer Price Index) went from 7.41% to 6.54%. This index is used to correct the national minimum wage floor and other social benefits.
The portfolio’s projection for the IGP-DI (General Price Index – Internal Availability) fell from 11.51% to 9.44%. This index has a wider scope to measure the rise in prices, as it also encompasses the wholesale sector and civil construction.
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