Opinion – Vinicius Torres Freire: Voters don’t change their minds in the campaign, useful vote conversation will heat up

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Since the end of August, the variation in the vote for president has been minimal or even a trifle, according to data from Datafolha polls. In practice or in cold statistics, there is no change in the rejection of Jair Bolsonaro (PL) and Lula da Silva (PT), nor in their votes. The government’s assessment is the same. The PT may win in the first round, but it is unlikely – it depends on fishing 2.5 million votes in other candidacies.

The conversation about the helpful vote will get more intense and tense. Abstentions can make a difference in the decision in the first round. Jokingly, but not too much, even the weather forecast on polling Sunday could be relevant, if the scenario remains unchanged until the eve of the vote. A wave of rain or “fake news” and downgrades can yield tenths of a percentage of votes.

About 90% of voters decided who to vote for more than a month ago, according to what they now tell Datafolha (among those now “fully decided”). Only 6% of that electorate say they have decided to vote for president this month. The share of voters who are “fully decided” on their vote changes one notch each week, up, now by 78%.

The early decision, or so the voters declare, seemed remarkable since June, as observed in these columns (“Voters are more decisive and have changed a lot since Lula 1”): “But there were other elections in which there were as many or more null votes, white and undecided in the middle of the year. In the 2022 campaign, the level of electoral abstinence and indecision is the lowest in redemocratization”.

This is not, of course, a prediction that there will be little change until October 2, the day of the first round. It just means that: 1) With the information available and with the emotions of the moment, voters have declared themselves unwilling to change their minds; 2) There are very few voters who are declared to be undecided or few willing to change candidates).

Of the approximately 21% still likely to change their minds, 20% would have Lula as an alternative; 15%, Bolsonaro. In the largest voting ponds still available, those of the voters of Ciro Gomes (PDT) and Simone Tebet (MDB), Bolsonaro has a majority and much greater rejection than Lula.

Speaking of rejection, the aversions in the first round also remained stable (53% against Bolsonaro, 38% against Lula), another bad sign for the Bolsonarista campaign. Since the beginning of the month, the attacks on Lula have yielded almost nothing in terms of increasing revulsion against the PT.

In the first round, Lula now has 48% of the votes, compared to 35% for Bolsonaro. In a possible second round between the two, PT takes about 59% to 41% of valid votes. In order to tie the game, Bolsonaro would have to take some 10 million votes away from Lula.

Since mid-August, Bolsonaro’s assessment has remained unchanged. About 44% of voters rate the government “bad/very bad” (from August 18 to September 15, it varied between 42% and 44%). For around 31%, the government is “great/good” (since mid-August, it has varied between 30% and 31%).

The fattest Aid Brasil practically did not yield extra votes for Bolsonaro. Perhaps it prevented the loss of voters. The bulk of the improvements in the economics of everyday life have already taken place (employment, minimal fall in inflation with price level still very high, average wage still in real decline, although getting worse).

In the campaign, little was said about plans. Apparently, votes are cast on the record or on the running record of the main candidates, more than ever they vote on the “image” of names that are well known to the majority. Useful voting and ugly beating should be the final issues of this campaign.

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