Opinion – Marcos de Vasconcellos: Presidential candidates help investors to aim

From the beginning of the Jair Bolsonaro government until now, the Ibovespa, the main thermometer of our Stock Exchange, has risen about 21%. The variation is higher than that recorded in the two terms of Dilma Rousseff, but it is far short of the periods in which Lula and Temer occupied the Planalto Palace.

The price of the commercial dollar against the real rose 34% under the Bolsonaro government. The only recent government official to see a larger rise than this in the price of the dollar was Dilma Rousseff, in her first term, when the American currency rose 61% against the real.

The clipping is much more useful to understand the period lived by the country and the global economy than the influence of the Chief Executive on the winds that blow our money. But this power must not, and cannot, be discarded. And nothing better than the election period for this discussion.

I spent the last few days talking to campaign teams and digesting government plans for the five presidential candidates who are ahead in the polls —Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT), Jair Messias Bolsonaro (PL), Ciro Gomes (PDT), Simone Tebet (PMDB) and Felipe d’Avila (Novo).

Regarding topics dear to the financial market, such as spending ceilings, dividend taxation, privatization of Petrobras and autonomy of the BC, there is no point on which everyone agrees — the result of the survey will be published at 7 am this Monday (19) on monitordomercado .com.br/noticias/35158-privatizacoes-impostos-e-gastos-o-raio-x-dos.

In addition to these more, shall we say, punctual items, there is an extremely relevant question that ends up outside the debates, as it is more difficult to discuss: what are the strategies to attract money to the country?

The global market is driven by money without nationality. It goes with the wind (actually, the offers with the best returns and in relation to the risk taken) for each country. Making Brazil attractive to these investors requires clarity and effort.

Saying that taxation needs to be simplified is mandatory for any government program. It’s like saying that the country needs health, education and security at election time. It is difficult for someone to bring details that match the reality of the moment.

Going to the more palpable side, the need for investment in infrastructure is also in the candidates’ basic booklet. Who adds sauce to the debate is USP professor Fernando Facury Scaff, by suggesting the creation of an investment floor (without implying the end of the spending ceiling), including investments in works, human capital and technology.

And it is precisely in the case of investment in technology that a term cited in Bolsonaro’s and Tebet’s electoral programs draws attention, for evading the obvious: “Industry 4.0”.

Also called the Fourth Industrial Revolution, it presupposes the remodeling of the production system to use technologies such as robotics, internet of things and cloud computing, which are changing the entire world supply chain.

Although it is a term hidden in two government programs, evolution is inevitable. And, regardless of who emerges victorious from the presidential election, they will be forced to strengthen this type of enterprise in the country.

Seeing companies that have the strength to surf a wave of investments in new technologies in Brazil can give investors tips on good opportunities for gains in the medium term.

Of the many companies in the industry that have gone public in recent years, the vast majority have seen their share price plummet so far. A change in the federal incentive to the area may finally bring a breather to the sector (and its investors).