Unemployment rate dropped with Lula and Bolsonaro, but data are not comparable

The unemployment rate fell during the Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) and Jair Bolsonaro (PL) administrations, according to data from the IBGE (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics).

The official estimates, however, underwent methodological changes over the years, and the results of the two administrations cannot be directly compared, ponder experts.

Lula appears in the lead in polls of voting intentions on the eve of the elections, followed by Bolsonaro – the first round will be this Sunday (2). From the list of candidates in 2022, the two are the only ones who have already won presidential races.

The current survey on unemployment in Brazil is the Pnad Contínua (Continuous National Household Sample Survey). With a quarterly cut, the sample covers the national territory, in addition to bringing other details. The historical series gathers data from 2012.

This Friday (30), the IBGE released the most recent edition of the Pnad, with data for the quarter through August. According to the survey, the unemployment rate for people aged 14 and over dropped to 8.9% in the period.

In the quarter to December 2018, before Bolsonaro took office, the unemployment rate was 11.7%. In campaign speeches, the president sought to draw attention to the drop in the indicator.

The truce of unemployment comes in a context of reopening of economic activities after the restrictions caused by the pandemic, which paralyzed companies and destroyed jobs. During the health crisis, the unemployment rate reached 14.9%, the highest in Pnad.

“We have a moment that allows recovery because we went very deep with the pandemic”, says economist Vivian Almeida, professor at Ibmec-RJ.

On the eve of the elections, Bolsonaro also sought to heat up the economy with tax cuts and freeing up resources, including the expansion of Auxílio Brasil in August.

“Bolsonaro caught a country coming out of a recession. Then it went into a tremendous health crisis. The recovery now [do mercado de trabalho] also has the impact of the incentives adopted for the purpose of staying in office”, says Sergio Firpo, economics professor at Insper and columnist for Sheet.

During Lula’s two terms (2003 to 2010), the unemployment survey published by the IBGE was the PME (Monthly Employment Survey). The historical series of this survey ended in February 2016.

One of the main differences in relation to the Pnad Contínua concerns the territorial scope.

PME data were estimated from the areas of six metropolitan regions (Recife, Salvador, Belo Horizonte, Rio Janeiro, São Paulo, Porto Alegre).

In addition, the unemployment rate was calculated among people over ten years of age – the Continuous Pnad starts at 14 years of age.

In December 2002, before Lula took office, unemployment was at 10.5% in the total of the analyzed regions, according to PME. Eight years later, in December 2010, the indicator dropped to 5.3%.

In this year’s campaign, the former president also sought to highlight the drop in unemployment during his administrations.

“There were a series of factors in the Lula government. We were in a commodities boom, we managed to grow and redistribute income in an impactful way”, says Firpo.

“At the beginning of the government, he [Lula] adopted policies to tidy up the house, of fiscal adjustment, which gave predictability to the markets. Then, it broke down,” he ponders.

Almeida also cites more than one point when analyzing the context of the PT era. “Lula gave security [no começo do primeiro mandato] that it would maintain economic policies adopted before. There was also the impact of the commodity boom,” he points out.