Official inflation, measured by the IPCA (Broad National Consumer Price Index), changed by 0.95% in November. It is the highest rate for the month since 2015 (1.01%), pointed out this Friday (10) the IBGE (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics).
The result came below financial market forecasts. Analysts consulted by Bloomberg agency projected a variation of 1.10% last month. The result represents a slowdown compared to October, when the rise in the IPCA had been higher, 1.25%.
Despite this, inflation accumulated in 12 months is close to 11%. With the November mark, it reached 10.74% — it was at 10.67% before.
The IPCA is far from the ceiling of the inflation target pursued by the BC (Central Bank) in 12 months. The ceiling is 5.25% in 2021. The center is 3.75%.
Seven of the nine groups of products and services surveyed increased in November. The biggest change (3.35%) and the biggest impact (0.72 percentage point) came from transport. The group was influenced by fuel prices, especially gasoline (7.38%), which once again had the greatest individual impact on the month’s index (0.46 pp).
According to analysts, high prices are also a concern for 2022.
Inflationary pressure, combined with higher interest rates, has reduced economic growth projections for next year. The two factors, together, make it difficult for families to consume, the engine of the GDP (Gross Domestic Product), which shows signs of stagnation in Brazil.
The inflationary escalation took shape in the country throughout the pandemic. At first, there was a rush of food prices and then fuel prices.
The rise of the dollar amid political turmoil in Brazil and the advance of agricultural commodities and oil on the international market help to explain the behavior of these prices.
In 2021, there was an additional ingredient: the water crisis. The lack of rain raised electricity generation costs, expanding the use of thermal plants, which are more expensive. The reflection was the higher electricity bill in Brazilian homes.
In an attempt to curb inflation, the Copom (BC Monetary Policy Committee) has been raising the basic interest rate, the Selic. On Wednesday (8), the collegiate increased the rate by 1.5 percentage points, to 9.25% per year.
The financial market projects IPCA of 10.18% in the 12-month accumulated until December 2021, according to the median of the Focus bulletin, released on Monday (6) by BC.
For 2022, the projection is 5.02%, above the ceiling of next year’s inflation target of 5%. In other words, it would be the second consecutive year of reaching the goal.
.
I have over 8 years of experience in the news industry. I have worked for various news websites and have also written for a few news agencies. I mostly cover healthcare news, but I am also interested in other topics such as politics, business, and entertainment. In my free time, I enjoy writing fiction and spending time with my family and friends.
