The IPCA-15 (National Index of Consumer Prices Extended 15) rose 0.16% in October, informed this Tuesday (25) the IBGE (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics).
The result came after two consecutive months of decline (-0.37% in September and -0.73% in August). Analysts consulted by the Bloomberg agency projected an increase of 0.09% in October.
In the 12-month period, the IPCA-15 started to register a high of 6.85%, according to the IBGE. The advance was at 7.96% until September.
The IPCA-15 is an early indicator of inflation. Your data is collected between the second half of the previous month and the first half of the reporting month — in this case, September and October.
The official inflation index in Brazil is the IPCA (Broad Consumer Price Index), also released by the IBGE.
As the IPCA variation is calculated over the reference month, the October data is not yet complete. It will be known on November 10.
Pressured by the effects of rising prices among the electorate, President Jair Bolsonaro (PL) has bet on cutting taxes to alleviate the famine in recent months.
The ceiling for charging ICMS (state tax) on fuel, electricity, telecommunications and transport was sanctioned in June by Bolsonaro.
One of the effects of the measure was the drop in gasoline prices. This relief, however, shows signs of exhaustion on the eve of the second round of elections, scheduled for Sunday (30). Bolsonaro appears behind former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) in polls.
In 12 months, the IPCA-15 is above the inflation target pursued by the BC (Central Bank) for the IPCA. The center of the target is 3.50% in 2022, with a tolerance range of up to 5%.
To curb the high price, the BC had to increase the basic interest rate, the Selic, which is at 13.75% per year. The Copom (Monetary Policy Committee) meets again this Tuesday to define the level of the Selic – the decision comes out on Wednesday (26).
Economists expect the rate to remain at the current level, as the scenario carries uncertainties of electoral origin. For now, they see the beginning of a cycle of cuts only in mid-2023.
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