Savings exceeds inflation and fixed income extends advantage with Selic at 13.75%

The return of fixed income increased with the maintenance of the Selic, the basic interest rate of the economy, thanks to the expectation of a slowdown in inflation in the country, according to a survey by financial search engine Yubb. Following the good moment for this type of application, savings have slightly increased their advantage with the prospect of the cost of living rising at a slower pace.

The Central Bank’s Copom (Monetary Policy Committee) announced this Wednesday (26) its decision to maintain the Selic rate at 13.75% per year, as was widely expected by the market.

With a yield of 6.17% per year, the most popular investment among Brazilians is now expected to earn a little more than half a percentage point over 2022 inflation, expected to close the year at 5.6% , according to the Focus survey published by the Central Bank on Monday (24).

In the previous survey, when the Selic rate had also been maintained at its current level, the real annual gain estimated for the passbook was only 0.16%. At the time, the inflation outlook for this year was a little higher, at 6%. In August, the return was negative 0.91%.

The rule for the remuneration of savings remains the same. The correction is 0.5% per month whenever the Selic is above 8.5% per year, as it is now. When the base rate is up to 8.5%, the yield is equivalent to 70% of the Selic.

Bernardo Pascowitch, founder of Yubb, warns that, despite the more favorable moment for savings, this investment has historically delivered a return lower than inflation. Therefore, keeping the money in the passbook, in the long run, is disadvantageous when the saver compares with other easily accessible applications.

“Despite having overcome inflation in recent months, we historically see that savings pay below inflation. In other words, historically, inflation does not restore the purchasing power of investors, which is why it is a bad alternative to invest”, says Pascowitch.

“There are countless other investments and alternatives as safe as, but much more profitable than savings. In this sense, the investor needs to seek and compare the possibilities of investing in fixed income”, he advises.

After completing two years of losses, the savings account returned to yield above inflation and recorded a real return of 0.02% positive in the 12 months ended in September, according to a survey prepared by TradeMap.

Pascowitch highlights that, despite the downward trend in inflation, factors that pressure prices are still present. He cites the Ukrainian War and China’s strict policy to combat Covid among the main inflationary threats.

In the comparison made by Yubb, all applications evaluated, such as CDBs and LCIs (Immobiliary Letters of Credit) and LCAs (Agribusiness Letters of Credit) offer better returns than savings.

According to the survey, incentivized debentures are, at the moment, the most profitable option. The return is 9.4% after discounting inflation.

It should be noted, however, that this is an application with a higher risk than the others listed in the comparison.

Whoever buys this asset is lending money to companies that carry out major infrastructure works of interest to the country. This is the reason why there is an incentive for exemption from Income Tax. The risk is therefore related to the solidity of the company that raised the money in the market.