Chance of Economy Minister being a ‘neopetista’ is 60%, says political scientist

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The post of new Minister of Economy in the government of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) should be occupied by a PT politician who represents a new line of thought within the party.

The assessment is by Lucas de Aragão, a master in political science, professor of political risk at FGV and partner at the political analysis consultancy Arko Advice. Aragão expects the appointment of a political name that represents a line of the “neo-PT” to assume the position of the Ministry of Economy in the coming weeks.

“You’re more likely to be a politician [no Ministério da Economia]”, said Aragão, during an event promoted by Bradesco’s asset manager this Friday (4).

Former governors Rui Costa and Camilo Santana and former minister Alexandre Padilha were cited by the expert among the names he believes are most likely to take charge of the economy in 2023, with a probability of around 60%.

Aragão estimates a 30% chance that the minister will be a more pro-market name, like Henrique Meirelles, former president of the BC in the Lula 1 and 2 governments. The specialist also gives a 10% probability for a political name more linked to the “PT root”, such as Aloizio Mercadante, Guido Mantega or Nelson Barbosa.

Aragão also predicts that the two first ministers to be known should be the one for the Economy and the Environment – ​​in this case, to take advantage of the topic in vogue because of COP27. “I think these two ministries come out in the next 10, 15 days.”

When all of the 30 or so ministries are scheduled — which the analyst predicts for mid-December — he hopes, however, that the government will have “more people outside the PT than inside.”

The political scientist at Arko Advice said that, faced with the fragmented Congress, with a more right-wing profile, he believes that the elected government will “rely very much on the center from the beginning” to be able to govern and pass the measures it wants. “[O governo Lula] will have to bring the PSD, the MDB, the União Brasil.”

Also according to the expert’s calculations, the PT government should start the government next year with a base in Congress with 139 parliamentarians, with another 177 independents, oscillating between a closer approximation with Bolsonarism and a more centrist profile, and another 200 of opposition.

Main challenge is extreme polarization, says Paulo Hartung

Also present on the panel, for Paulo Hartung, former governor of Espírito Santo, the biggest challenge of the Lula government from 2023 on is dealing with a very polarized country.

“I’ve been doing politics since redemocratization, I participated in the democratization process, and I’ve never seen anything like what we’re experiencing, this level of division in the country,” said Hartung. “If I have to list the country’s biggest challenge today, it’s this division.”

He said that the leadership that assumes this fragmented country needs to be aware of the challenges that await it, not least because the “authorization that comes from this election is very limited”.

“If the leader is not aware of this, [ele vai] trip over their own legs,” said Hartung, adding that the president-elect needs to step down from the platform and make signs that reach as many voters as possible.

“It has a task of reuniting the country, at least in part, because it is too divided,” said the former governor.

He also stated that, although the economy is running well this year, for 2023 and 2024 the scenario is more challenging, with budget limitations to cover spending on social programs. “This was not discussed in the campaign. The campaign was absolutely superficial in relation to Brazil’s issues.”

Hartung also stated that there are positive aspects on a global scale that can be beneficial to the country, such as the positive impact of Brazilian elections abroad. According to him, a reaction as positive as the current one about the election in the country only bears some relation to the election of Tancredo Neves. “The repercussion is extraordinary.”

Hartung mentioned the start of COP27 in the coming days, and said that the environmental agenda could put Brazil back in the game. “Decarbonization is an opportunity for the country.”

He also said that the ongoing concessions in the infrastructure sector represent an opportunity, with projects that should generate a financial volume of around R$ 50 billion in the coming months.

“There are a lot of opportunities on the table, but the challenges that are posed are an exercise in responsible leadership. The president [Bolsonaro] he already understood his game, which is to play at rest, and the future president has to step down from the platform. This is a fundamental task.”

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