President-elect Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s (PT) transition team wants to permanently remove a set of social expenditures from the expenditure ceiling. The plan, mentioned last Monday (7) by interlocutors, is now openly commented on by members of the party.
The group works to establish this exception in the PEC (proposed amendment to the Constitution) announced last week to make room in the Budget. The objective is to secure resources not only in 2023, but also in the following years.
Lula’s campaign promises are expected to be included in the PEC, such as maintaining the minimum amount of R$ 600 for Bolsa Família (as the PT intends to rename Auxílio Brasil) and the additional benefit of R$ 150 for children under six years.
Those responsible for the text say that the PEC should not delimit a period in which some social expenses would be outside the spending ceiling – that is, the exception initially planned only for 2023 could become permanent.
This would leave the Lula government without this tie to expand the income transfer program and other measures in the social area – one of the president-elect’s bets to boost economic growth.
“The ideal is to include the poor in the Budget and stay,” he told Sheet elected senator Wellington Dias (PT-PI). He was chosen by Lula to act in the negotiations around the changes in the Budget proposal for 2023.
“It is an exceptionality for this social part. What is social is what will be defined. [Brasil]”, he said. “The understanding is that this part will have every year.”
Lula’s team will still hold internal discussions to hammer it out, in addition to discussing with Congress the rules and the list of expenses that would be free of limitation.
Dias, on the other hand, stated that the idea does not change the Lula government’s intention to review the spending ceiling – the president-elect spoke during the campaign of abolishing this rule for controlling public expenditure.
“Does not change our commitment to review [o teto]. What the president wants is to have a fiscal commitment and to control the accounts”, declared the senator-elect.
The team working at PEC will analyze which expenses would be permanent and could be out of the ceiling without a defined period. This applies, for example, to measures to expand the Bolsa Família.
In the case of short-term expenses, such as resources to clear the SUS queue, it would not be necessary to predict that the expenses will remain permanently without the ceiling limitation.
Senate President Rodrigo Pacheco (PSD-MG) said that he has not yet discussed the PT’s proposal to permanently remove social spending from the ceiling, but indicated that this is a way to solve the problem of lack of resources for the social area.
“We have a problem of fiscal space to pass the Auxílio Brasil to R$ 600 and we will have the same fiscal problem over the years due to the spending ceiling,” Pacheco told Sheet.
“It may have the intention of anticipating for this PEC now a definitive solution on the fiscal space over time for social programs”, added the Senate president.
According to Lula’s allies, the estimate is that around R$ 175 billion will be needed above the ceiling limit to meet the president-elect’s priority proposals.
In the social area, preliminary calculations indicate that at least around R$ 52 billion would be essential to maintain the Bolsa Família at R$ 600 and another R$ 18 billion to guarantee an additional R$ 150 per child from zero to six years of age.
There is an expectation of including at least R$ 100 billion for other expenses, including investments.
The tendency is for the PEC to start being analyzed by the Senate – Pacheco has supported the drafting of the text.
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