The dollar soared against the real in the first deals on Thursday (10), reflecting the maintenance of domestic fears about the fiscal agenda of president-elect Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT), while investors digested the IPCA data for October and reinforced caution ahead of the release of an important inflation reading in the United States.
At 9:10 am (GMT), the spot dollar advanced 1.91%, at R$ 5.2834 on sale.
On B3, at 9:10 am (GMT), the first-maturity dollar futures contract rose 1.81% to R$5.3000.
This Wednesday (9), the frustration of international investors with the lower-than-expected performance of the Republican Party in the midterm elections caused a global rise in the dollar and took strength from the stock markets, including the Brazilian one.
In domestic exchange, the spot commercial dollar closed up 0.66%, quoted at R$ 5.1840.
On the Brazilian Stock Exchange, the Ibovespa dropped 2.22%, to 113,580 points. The fall of almost 18% of Bradesco’s shares, after a quarterly result that disappointed investors, also contributed to the negative performance of the index.
The bank suffered its biggest daily fall on the stock exchange in more than two decades and lost almost R$ 31 billion in market value in this session.
In the United States, risk aversion sentiment interrupted a sequence of three highs on the New York Stock Exchange and generated greater demand for fixed income investments linked to the Treasury, which consequently made the dollar more expensive in the rest of the world. The index that compares the US currency to other currencies rose more than 0.70%.
Parameter for the US stock market, the S&P 500 indicator lost 2.08% this session. Walt Disney shares plunged 13%, the biggest drop since September 2001, on a quarterly earnings report that displeased investors. On the other hand, Meta shares rose 5.18% after the company that owns Facebook announced the layoff of more than 11,000 workers.
Despite the impact of business results in the Brazilian and US markets, analysts pointed to the US election as the event with the greatest influence on business this Wednesday.
Local investors are also following speculation about who will be president-elect Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s (PT) economic minister.
This Tuesday (8), the transition team of president-elect Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) announced that it will count on economists Persio Arida and André Lara Resende. Financiers demanded from the new management technical names and more aligned with the market.
In addition to Arida and Resende, economist Guilherme Mello, a professor at Unicamp and linked to the PT, and Nelson Barbosa, who was Minister of Finance and Planning in the government of Dilma Rousseff, will also be part of the transition.
As a result, there is a division of the area between two economists with a liberal background (Arida and Resende) and two direct representatives of the party (Barbosa and Mello), who defend the flexibility of the spending ceiling to meet social demands.
The prospect of including former finance minister Guido Mantega in the transition, as vice president-elect Geraldo Alckmin (PSB) said, also generated complaints among market participants.
Some said, however, that mistrust could be assuaged if the new government presents a “waiver”, which in this context means a license to spend above the spending ceiling of R$170 billion, below the R$200 billion initially estimated.