The availability of beef per capita declined by 5.2 kilograms from 2018 to 2022 in Brazil. As of next year, even with exports increasing, domestic supply is expected to grow.
Beef will become more affordable and the loss in recent years from pandemics, swine fever and war will be recouped.
The evaluations are by Maurício Palma Nogueira, director of the Athenagro consultancy and coordinator of the Livestock Rally. The per capita availability of beef in Brazil is at 36 kilos of carcass per inhabitant, considering formal and informal offers.
If only the formal supply is considered, the meat that goes through federal, state or municipal control, the per capita amount is 23 kilos. Nogueira says that the availability of informal meat has been increasing, which shows an increase in informality in the country.
Brazilian livestock, however, is well positioned in relation to activity in other countries. In the last 32 years, the Brazilian herd has increased by 38%, and meat production has grown by 128%. In the same period, the world herd increased by 17%, but meat production rose by only 31%.
In the same period, pasture areas decreased by 22% in Brazil, productivity increased by 191% and the number of heads of animals per hectare increased by 76%, according to Athenagro.
Ten years ago, Brazil exported 25% of the meat it produced, placing 1.2 million tons on the foreign market. Currently, it still places 25% of what it produces on the foreign market, but the volume reaches 2.8 million tons. The United States, Australia and India maintain volumes similar to those of ten years ago.
The challenges for livestock, however, are great. Until 2030, the sector will have to invest annually 2.5 to 3 times in productivity, in relation to what it invested per year from 2011 to 2020.
This amount should be between R$ 28 billion and R$ 36 billion per year, according to Nogueira. It’s a challenge in a period of high production costs and high interest rates, he says.
In addition, the sector will have to face several other challenges, such as sanitation, compliance with the environmental agenda and an eventual policy of internal barriers to exports to control inflation.
As for environmental sustainability, Brazil need not be afraid of the current agenda. “It’s a chance for the country to sit at the table and show what is being done, not having to swallow rules from others.” Brazilian livestock emits less carbon than it removes, says Nogueira.
Advancement in productivity and investments are fundamental in the sector, according to the consultant. The 15% of producers with the highest productivity already represent 58% of sales of the total arrobas in the country. Those who don’t adapt will be on the way, says Nogueira.
In the last ten years, national livestock raised productivity by 2.3% per year. The producers followed by the Livestock Rally, which adopt more technology, had an average growth of 5.7% per year. In 2021, national livestock had an average increase of 4.12%. The ranchers accompanied by the Rally already show an increase of 10.75%.
The Livestock Rally, which is in its 11th edition, is carried out by the consultancies Athenagro and Agroconsult. It is a technical expedition that evaluates beef cattle in the country.
The objectives are to interact with producers, disseminate knowledge, diagnose the technological level of production and discuss trends and challenges, says Nogueira.
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