Congress sees a 2-year limit for Bolsa Família out of the ceiling, and PT admits giving in

The summit of the National Congress and party leaders concluded that the PEC (proposed amendment to the Constitution) of the Transition, seen by the PT as fundamental to guarantee the execution of electoral promises, only has a chance of being approved if it has a maximum term of two years.

The proposal, which removes the Bolsa Família from the spending cap and allows the execution of other expenses, was originally presented by the vice president-elect Geraldo Alckmin (PSB) to party leaders last week without a defined deadline – which, in practice, would make the measure permanent.

Without enough support in Congress, the PT had been facing resistance on the issue – but it would not give up a minimum duration of four years. Now, however, in view of the chieftains’ view that the deadline needs to be shorter, different PT members heard by the Sheet They are already resigned to reducing the proposal to just two years if this is the only scenario to obtain approval from the Legislative, given the lack of support for more.

With this, the PT could resolve the imbroglio of the lack of funds in 2023 and would still gain extra time for the discussion of which new fiscal rule will replace the spending ceiling.

As the debate on the subject is seen as complex, there may not be enough time to approve the new legislation that limits expenses before the discussion of the 2024 Budget – the 2024 budget guidelines bill needs to be delivered to Congress in April 2023 (in less than five months).

The PT’s view is that, if the discussions move towards an even greater dehydration regarding the term, lasting one year, the effort would no longer be worth it because the elected government could look for easier ways to execute the expenses.

According to party members, execution could be achieved through a provisional measure that would release extraordinary credits, for example. This would require support from the TCU (Union Court of Auditors), which has signaled approval for the measure.

Despite this, the exit is not seen as the safest from a legal point of view – for example, because extraordinary credit can only be released in situations of unpredictability and urgency (and the invocation of this scenario to justify the measure can be contested).

In particular, promises such as the real increase in the minimum wage and the recomposition of investments may find it difficult to find legal support if the path chosen is that of extraordinary credits.

PEC negotiators and members of the Congressional summit claim that, in relation to the amount to be released in the Budget with the proposal, the path has become less tortuous for the PT.

The party wants at least R$ 175 billion outside the spending ceiling. Despite the criticism of the elected government by independent groups, PT members began –a few days ago– looking for each of the senators to show the tightness in the Budget and the need to keep the value at the requested level –but that does not mean that there is a consensus on this part of the PEC.

PT leaders and allies of the president-elect are still awaiting Lula’s visit to Brasília next week to untie the political knots. The return of the elected president to the federal capital is the party’s big bet to sew support for the four-year term in the PEC – considered ideal by the new government.

So far, the PT still has not managed to form a solid political base. Lula is still negotiating with parties such as União Brasil, PSD and part of the MDB. In addition to these acronyms, the elected government faces difficulty in composing with allies of President Jair Bolsonaro (PL), such as PP, PL and Republicans.

Members of these six parties do not want to approve a PEC valid for the entire term of Lula, as this would reduce Congress’ bargaining power in the new PT government.

Petistas already admit that the text can only be presented next week. The goal is to put together a version that has a large majority in the Senate and, later, in the House.

Senator Marcelo Castro, rapporteur for the 2023 Budget, stated that there is a lack of consensus both regarding the amount and the deadline. “What we agreed on: we’re going to spend our energies looking for a consensus, an understanding. We’re going to talk and, when we reach an understanding, we collect the signatures, put it through the process and approve it,” he said.

Even so, he said that the idea is to approve it by the end of next week in the Senate so that it can go to the House afterwards.

The PT has a view that, in the Chamber, there would be less resistance to the PEC. Some party members say that, because of the rapprochement with the mayor, Arthur Lira (PP-AL), it would even be possible to approve the proposal with a four-year term.

However, the top parties that control the Chamber have been against the idea of ​​authorizing an increase in Lula’s spending beyond the first year. This is the assessment of parties such as PP, PL, Republicans, as well as PSD and União Brasil.

Even in the MDB, which is part of Lula’s transition team, there are criticisms of the elected government’s political articulation. The party wants to know what space it will have in the new Lula administration.

Nathalia Garcia and Idiana Tomazelli collaborated