Unemployment rate drops to 8.3% by October, lowest level since 2014

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The unemployment rate fell again in Brazil and reached 8.3% in the quarter ended in October, informed this Wednesday (30) the IBGE (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics). It is the lowest level for that period since 2014.

At the time, the economy was already showing signs of weakness, and the rate was at 6.7%. Considering different quarters of the comparable historical series of the Continuous PNAD (Continuous National Household Sample Survey), the most recent mark is the lowest since the interval up to April 2015 (8.1%).

The new result came in slightly below expectations. Analysts consulted by the Bloomberg agency projected an unemployment rate of 8.5% until October.

The unemployment indicator was 9.1% in the quarter up to July, a comparable period of the Pnad Contínua. In the quarter through September, which is part of another Pnad series, the indicator was already at 8.7%.

The number of unemployed, in turn, fell to 9 million in the quarter ended in October. The contingent totaled 9.9 million up to July and 9.5 million up to September.

The unemployed population, according to official statistics, is made up of people aged 14 or over who are out of work and are looking for new jobs. Those who do not have a job and are not looking for opportunities do not enter into this calculation.

PNAD portrays both the formal and informal labor market. That is, it ranges from jobs with a formal contract and CNPJ to the popular odd jobs.

After the damage caused by the pandemic, the generation of vacancies benefited from vaccination against Covid-19. Immunization allowed the reopening of business and the return of movement of people.

The drop in unemployment, as of last year, was accompanied by the creation of jobs with lower wages on average. Real income was weakened by the rise in inflation in the country.

The average yield only started to show signs of improvement recently, in a context of a truce in prices. On the eve of the elections, the Jair Bolsonaro (PL) government sought to curb inflation with tax cuts on items such as fuel.

Bolsonaro lost the dispute at the polls to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT), who is going to his third term from 2023.

According to economists, the unemployment rate should be closer to 8% until December. The final stretch of the year is usually marked by temporary hiring due to seasonal demand in sectors such as commerce.

The recovery of the labor market tends to lose momentum in 2023, say analysts. This assessment weighs heavily on the effect of high interest rates, which tend to slow down economic activity and, consequently, job openings.

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