Follow the dollar rate this Friday (16)

The dollar had little change against the real shortly after opening this Friday (16), in line with the outside world and with the postponement of the vote on the Spending PEC in the Chamber of Deputies on the radar of investors, who were also waiting for the announcement of more members of the economic team of the elected government.

At 9:16 am (Brasília time), the spot dollar advanced 0.09%, at R$ 5.3200 on sale.

On B3, at 9:16 am (Brasília time), the first contract dollar futures contract fell 0.02%, to R$ 5.3335.

In the last session, the American currency ended the day with only a modest oscillation, at a slight increase of 0.13%, quoted at R$ 5.3160 ​​for sale.

This Thursday (15th), with the attention of investors focused on the discussion around the State-Owned Companies Law in Congress, the Brazilian Stock Exchange operated under intense volatility, with emphasis on the positive performance of the shares of public companies Petrobras and Banco from Brazil.

The expectation of financial agents that changes in the law that shields state-owned companies from political excesses will find greater difficulties in the Senate to advance in the way that occurred in the Chamber helped in the rise of shares.

Petrobras shares had an adjustment session and closed the day on a significant high – with gains of 2.55%, in the case of common shares, and 2.65%, for preferred shares.

Shares had sunk 9.8% and 7.8% on Wednesday (14), respectively, with strong pressure as a result of the elected government’s effort to change the State-owned Law and thus facilitate appointments of politicians to the command of public companies.

In addition to Petrobras shares, Banco do Brasil also had outstanding appreciation, with gains of 2.83% this Thursday.

Chief strategist of Banco Mizuho, ​​Luciano Rostagno says that the rise in state-owned shares on Thursday was driven by market expectations that the changes intended by the elected government in the State-owned Companies Law would encounter resistance in the Senate.

“The market’s reading that there may be changes in relation to the discussions on the State-Owned Law in the Senate may have helped this movement of the shares, not least because the market reacted very negatively to the way in which the approval in the Chamber was”, says Rostagno .

Despite the positive contribution of the shares of companies controlled by the government, the Ibovespa stock index, which fluctuated between highs and lows throughout the trading session, on a day of strong losses abroad, ended business stable in relation to the previous close, at 103,737 points.

In the futures interest market, which incorporates the expectations of financial agents about the conduct of monetary policy by the BC (Central Bank) in the coming months, the day was one of decline. The title for January 2024 dropped from 14.07% at the close to 13.90% this Thursday, while the contract for 2025 fell from 13.84% to 13.59%.

Vale’s shares advanced 0.3%, following the rise in the price of iron ore, after news from the Chinese state media that the Asian giant intends to adopt stimulus policies to warm up the pace of economic activity in the region.

Information published by the official Xinhua news agency revealed that China has established plans to expand domestic consumption and investment.

China aims to scale up consumption and investment to a new level by 2035, significantly reduce the income gap between urban and rural residents, and make substantial progress in the country’s “common prosperity” guideline, Xinhua said.

Still on the Brazilian Stock Exchange, the highlight was the sharp increase in Oi’s preferred shares, which registered gains of 52%, after the company informed that its judicial recovery process came to an end after more than six years of duration.

The closure of the process was decreed by the 7th Corporate Court of the Judicial District of the Capital of the State of Rio de Janeiro the night before, Oi said in a statement. The company claims that, in the period, it was able to pay a debt of R$ 4.6 billion with the state development bank BNDES, among other liabilities.

In a smaller magnitude but also with an expressive high, the shares of Restoque advanced 8%, after the clothing retail company informed on Wednesday night that its board of directors approved a proposal to be presented to shareholders for a change of the company’s brand. , in addition to a capital increase of R$ 100 million and a reverse stock split at an 8 to 1 ratio.

The company, owner of brands such as Le Lis, Dudalina and John John, intends to change its name to Veste SA Estilo and, with that, change the code of its share in B3 from LLIS3 to VSTE3.

Stock markets in the US and Europe have a sharp drop with tough messages from BCs

On global stock exchanges, shares had a day of significant falls in the United States on Thursday – the S&P 500 dropped 2.49%, the Dow Jones had losses of 2.25% and the Nasdaq retreated 3.23%.

The chief strategist of Banco Mizuho claims that the messages passed the day before by the Federal Reserve (Fed, central bank of the United States) about the impact of high interest rates on the American economy weighed on the mood of global investors.

Although it has reduced the pace of interest rate hikes from 0.75 percentage points in the last meetings to 0.50 points at this Wednesday’s meeting, the US monetary authority said it expects to increase the basic interest rate even more and that it should maintain it. high for longer than previously anticipated, signaling that its efforts to contain high inflation are likely to mean further growth in unemployment and a possible recession.

The Fed’s latest quarterly economic projections show policymakers see rates at 5.1% at the end of next year. In September, they projected that 2023 would end with the base rate at 4.6%.

In Europe, the day was also a sharp drop in stocks, after the ECB (European Central Bank) raised interest rates for the fourth consecutive time this Thursday, although by a smaller magnitude than in its last two meetings.

Euro zone stocks posted their worst daily performance in six months on Thursday, slipping back to mid-November levels.

London’s FTSE-100 stock index fell 0.93%, Paris’ CAC-40 dropped 3.09% and Frankfurt’s DAX dropped 3.28%.

The central bank of the 19 euro zone countries has raised the interest rate it pays on bank deposits from 1.5% to 2%, moving further away from a decade of ultra-loose monetary policy.

But the decision marked a slowdown in the pace of tightening after increases of 75 percentage points at each of the ECB’s two previous meetings, as inflation shows signs of having peaked and a recession looming.

Despite the slowdown, the ECB has promised further increases and laid out plans to drain cash from the financial system as part of its fight against inflation.

“The Governing Council considers that interest rates will still have to rise significantly at a steady pace to reach levels restrictive enough to ensure a timely return of inflation to the 2% target over the medium term,” the ECB said.

With Reuters