Despite an expected slowdown in the world economy, international coffee consumption is expected to rise to 167.9 million bags in the 2022/23 harvest. If confirmed, this volume will exceed by 700,000 bags that of the previous harvest.
The numbers are from the USDA (United States Department of Agriculture), which also points to an improvement in world stocks.
The estimate, released this Tuesday (20), forecasts world stocks of 34.1 million bags. The volume exceeds the 32.6 million of the previous harvest, but is below the 38 million of 2020/21.
The highlights in terms of consumption are the European Union, the United States and Brazil. Together they will absorb 91.5 million bags.
Among importers, the highlights are the European Union, which will acquire 44.5 million bags, and the United States, which should buy 24.8 million.
Brazil will supply 40% of the coffee to be purchased by Europeans and 30% of the volume to be purchased by North Americans.
The USDA revised Brazilian production to 62.6 million bags in the 2022/23 harvest, above the previous one, but still below the 69.9 million bags of 2020/21.
As it is a year of positive bienniality —with a larger harvest—, higher production was expected, but the frosts in June and July 2021, and the dry period that followed, affected productivity.
Arabica production, which reached 49.7 million bags in 2020/21, another year of positive bienniality, should be 39.8 million in this crop in Brazil, according to USDA calculations.
European Union The confidence of agricultural producers in their activities has been falling since the second half of last year, according to a survey by cooperatives in the sector.
reasons Increased costs, mainly those generated by fertilizers and energy, high interest rates and drought discourage European producers.
Soy Planting in Paraná reached 100%, and crop conditions are 90% good. Another 9% are in an average situation and 1% in a bad stage, according to Deral (Department of Agriculture of Paraná).
GDP The Gross Domestic Product of agribusiness fell 4.28% from January to September, compared to the same previous period. Livestock had a reduction of 0.24%, and the agricultural sector, of 5.7%.
GDP 2 Data are from Cepea and CNA, which point to a reduction in the participation of agribusiness in the country’s total economy to 25%. Last year it was 27%.
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