Greece’s “performance” in fuel accuracy – Second in unleaded

By Chrysostomos Tsoufis

Despite the small upward rally that has been running since December 16 in the international price of oil (+$3/barrel to $82), the price of unleaded oil moved downwards, albeit marginally to €1.828/liter from €1.83.

Nevertheless, based on the weekly data published by Commission, Greece is once again the second most expensive unleaded in Europe, a breath away from Denmark which closed the week at €1,847/litre. In fact, our distance from the 3rd and 4th, Holland and Germany respectively, is quite long, of the order of almost 10 minutes.

Almost the same picture in diesel. Greece at €1.79/litre has the 5th highest price behind Sweden, Finland, Germany and Denmark.

On the contrary, in heating oil, for which the double subsidy of 25 cents from the state budget and 3.5 cents from the refineries applies, our country has the 7th lowest price behind Malta, Croatia, Belgium, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Ireland . Of course, here too, the picture is expected to worsen from 2023, as the state subsidy will decrease by 10 minutes to 15, while no one knows what will happen next with the discount of the refineries.

Almost all analyzes for 2023 indicate that the average price of black gold for the year will be higher than current levels. The World Bank and JPMorgan are predicting a price around $90, but there are also several such as Goldman Sachs who estimate that the average price will be in the 3 digits. In any case, 2023 will be a very difficult year for fuel prices.

As she emphasizes of course The World Bankall forecasts involve great uncertainty as the parameters that will affect future prices are many.

On the supply side, Russia’s exports are expected to decline in 2023 as the European block on imports of Russian oil has already been running since 5/12, while from February it will also be extended to its derivatives. In contrast, everyone expects US production to rise while its strategic stockpiles are near a 40-year low.

Another factor that will influence is the decisions of OPEC+ which argues that it does not allow politics to influence its decisions.

From the demand side, it is of particular importance where the ball will finally sit in terms of the global growth rate, which is being revised downwards month after month. Unknown X and China which not only has not yet recovered from COVID but is constantly putting additional cities under quarantine.

Added to the mix is ​​the fluctuating dollar/euro exchange rate in a “competition” environment with constant interest rate hikes by the FED and ECB.

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