Analysts consulted by the Central Bank ended 2022 by raising projections for inflation and predicting fewer cuts in the basic interest rate this new year, according to the Focus survey released this Monday (2).
The survey, which captures the market’s perception of economic indicators, was completed on Friday, December 30, before the inauguration of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva for his third term as president, on Sunday.
Focus pointed out that the expectation is that the IPCA ended 2022 with an increase of 5.62%, against 5.64% before. But for this year the account rose by 0.08 percentage points, to 5.31%. For 2024 there was also an increase of 0.05 points to 3.65%.
In all cases, the inflation outlook exceeds the center of the target for each year –3.5% for 2022, 3.25% for 2023 and 3.00% for 2024, always with a tolerance margin of 1.5 percentage point plus or minus.
Inflationary pressure led the experts consulted to predict a higher basic interest rate this year, 12.25% against 12.00% before, thus calculating fewer cuts for the Selic compared to the current level of 13.75%. For 2024, the expectation is that the rate will end at 9.00%.
For GDP (Gross Domestic Product), growth estimates had little change. The forecast is for growth of 3.04% in 2022, 0.80% in 2023 and 1.50% in 2024. Only for this year was there an adjustment, of 0.79% predicted in the previous week.
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