Shuttle: Bad news for consumers: food stocks fall in Brazil and abroad

Food production, both domestically and around the world, is likely to be a problem for consumers. That’s what data released on Thursday (12) shows.

The information does not indicate a strong interruption in production, but points to the possibility of maintaining current prices, which are high compared to the levels of recent years.

Internally, Conab (National Supply Company) and IBGE (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics) show the first signs of an adverse climate in this 2022/23 harvest, mainly in Rio Grande do Sul.

On the international market, the USDA (United States Department of Agriculture) points to a slowdown in world harvests of several products.

The Brazilian production of the two main items, soy and corn, even with the announced breaks, will be records. The concern is with food stocks, which are at the lowest levels of the last decade.

Corn should end the 2022/23 harvest with stocks of less than 5 million tons, the lowest volume since 2011/12. The country consumes 6.7 million tons per month.

Prices for the first half, which are already rising, should maintain upward pressure until the off-season. Both domestic demand and exports are buoyant. National production should reach 125 million tons, informs Conab.

For the USDA, the world corn harvest retreats to 1.16 billion tons, 4.9% less than the previous one. Production of sorghum, a substitute for corn in some areas, will fall by 5.4%.

The national rice harvest once again registered a deceleration, due to the smaller planting area, and came to 10.4 million tons. Accelerated exports affect ending stocks, which fall to 1.73 million tons, the lowest in nine years.

In the United States, the USDA reported on Thursday that world production of the cereal drops to 503 million tons, 2.3% less. External demand for rice will continue.

National wheat stocks, after the record harvest of 2022, have improved, but are below the average of previous years. Record exports reduced the cereal’s domestic supply.

Soy, which is already starting to be harvested, will have a production of 152.7 million tons in Brazil, below initial forecasts, due to weather problems in Rio Grande do Sul. Even with the drop, the harvest will be a record.

World soybean production, with the help of Brazil, rises to 388 million tons, 8.35% above the previous level, according to the USDA. The increase in soybean supply offsets the 10.9% drop in world sunflower production.

In the case of beans, the Brazilian harvest once again registers the same uncertainties as in previous years. Smaller planting area, higher profitability of other grains, drop in productivity and unfavorable weather keep production below 3 million tons.

As a result, final stocks of the legume are close to 250,000 tons in the 2022/23 harvest. Monthly consumption is 238 thousand tons.

The fall in volumes does not occur only in Brazil, but also in the United States. The two are among the world’s leading grain suppliers.

This Thursday, the USDA showed that corn and wheat stocks in the United States retreated 7%, when compared December 2022 with the same month of 2021. Rice fell 17%; soybeans, 4%; and sorghum, 45%.

The IBGE also brings bad news for consumers of potatoes, bananas and cassava. Indicatives for December pointed to production lower than expected in November. For now, however, the retreat is small.