Can eggs be missing in Brazil? Understand shortages in different countries around the world

The Brazilian Paula Moreno, 43 years old and resident for 12 of them in Los Angeles, in the United States, went through last Friday (6) an unusual experience in the usually abundant North American supermarkets.

“I went to the supermarket right next to the house, which I usually do, I needed to buy a few things and one of them was an egg. I got there, the egg shelf was completely empty and there was a notice saying it was out of stock”, says the pharmacist .

Paula took pictures and shared the news with the neighbors. A Venezuelan friend, more experienced in shortage situations, soon found out when another supermarket in the neighborhood would be restocked. The next day, I was at the door of the venue ten minutes before opening at 8 am.

This second supermarket was limiting the sale of eggs to two boxes per person, but the friend managed to take three, as she was buying for other families in the neighborhood.

“Then it became a joke. Later that day, my mother asked what I wanted for dinner, I replied ‘an omelette’ and my friend who was here at home immediately joked: ‘She’s acting rich, wasting eggs'”, she says. the Brazilian, between laughs.

A global egg shortage

The shortage of eggs experienced by the Brazilian pharmaceutical company and her Venezuelan friend in Los Angeles is not exclusive to the city in California, on the American west coast.

“Living a real ‘egg anxiety’ in relation to this shortage of eggs,” writes a journalist in New York, on the east coast of the United States, on a social network.

“Is there a shortage of eggs in the UK? There wasn’t an egg in sight in the supermarket the other day”, asks a consumer from London, England. “My God, yes! There wasn’t a single egg in our supermarket last week,” replies another.

“Sir @antoniocostapm, there are no eggs in supermarkets, do something”, complains a consumer from Lisbon, marking the profile of the Portuguese Prime Minister António Costa.

From the United States, passing through Europe and arriving in New Zealand, the world is facing a global shortage of chicken eggs at the beginning of this year.

The curious thing is that there are different explanations for this lack in different parts of the world.

Understand the reasons for the global shortage of eggs at the beginning of 2023 and the prospects for the supply of the product in Brazil, at a time when many are resorting to this source of protein, in view of the sharp rise in food prices.

In the US, a devastating outbreak of bird flu

The shortage of eggs in the United States is mainly due to a devastating outbreak of avian influenza.

According to a report in The Washington Post, citing data from the United States Department of Agriculture, the current outbreak of avian flu has already led to the death of more than 44 million laying hens, or about 4% to 5% of the North American flock.

“The flu is the most important factor affecting the price of eggs,” Maro Ibarburu, a market analyst at the Egg Industry Center at Iowa State University, told the Washington Post. “In this outbreak, in terms of laying hens, we lost 10 million more birds than the last outbreak in 2015.”

Since February 2022, the avian influenza epidemic has reached at least 47 of the 52 US states. Iowa, the largest egg-producing state in the US, is the hardest hit.

In states like Colorado and California, the shortage of eggs is further aggravated by local legislation that has prohibited the creation of chickens in cages, a requirement aimed at animal welfare that has removed some producers from the market.

According to the Los Angeles Times, a dozen eggs in California are currently selling at US$ 7.37 (R$ 38.14), compared to US$ 4.83 in early December and US$ 2.35 a year ago , according to data from the US Department of Agriculture.

The shortage hits the poorest Californians the hardest, depleting stocks at food banks for donations and hurting families who rely on federal welfare programs with limited rules for buying produce.

On social media, however, the lack of eggs became a meme.

In Europe, costs pressured by the war

In Europe, in addition to the avian flu, the high cost of grains and electricity, as a result of the war between Russia and Ukraine, also affects the supply of eggs.

In the United Kingdom, for example, the main supermarket chains, such as Tesco, Lidl and Asda, even imposed purchase limits on consumers throughout 2022.

Earlier this year, the traditional Wetherspoon pub chain placed notices on the counter of some of its units in England, informing consumers that, due to national shortages, some of the eggs served there may come from the European Union — which generated comments. on social media, in a country that is still trying to put its house in order after Brexit.

Faced with high costs and the difficulty of passing on inflation to supermarkets, British producers claim they are currently losing money with each box of eggs sold.

With this disincentive, the British Association of Cage-Free Egg Producers estimates that the British flock of laying birds has shrunk by 6% in the last 12 months, to 36.4 million, according to a report by Reuters agency.

“Even if retailers tell the industry they will now pay more for a dozen, it would still take six to eight months to produce enough birds to replace those lost,” one egg producer told Reuters.

The lack of eggs was also felt in Portugal. “We are experiencing the worst crisis,” said Paulo Mota, president of the National Association of Poultry Producers of Eggs (Anapo), to the Portuguese website Sapo24.

According to the entity, the shortage in Portugal was concentrated in the month of December, due to the increase in demand typical of Christmas, but in January the situation should normalize.

In New Zealand, new legislation

In 2012, New Zealand started a gradual process to eliminate the creation of laying birds in cages. The plan provided for a period of ten years for the country to reach this goal, with the deadline of January 1, 2023.

In 2012, 86% of laying hens in the country were raised in captivity, a percentage reduced to 10% in December 2022, according to the British newspaper The Guardian.

However, the change in poultry storage conditions raised production costs. And the increased demand for cage-free eggs has not kept pace with the growth in the poultry population.

According to Michael Brooks, director of the New Zealand Egg Producers Federation, the country currently has 3.5 million laying hens, but needs 3.8 million to ensure a constant supply of eggs, as reported by the New Zealand website Stuff.

Thus, a solution to the shortage in the country may still take months.

And in Brazil, can eggs be missing?

Ricardo Santin, president of the Brazilian Association of Animal Protein (ABPA) and the board of directors of Instituto Ovos Brasil, reassures Brazilian consumers: around here, there should be no shortage of eggs.

But a smaller production in 2023 should keep prices high, warns the executive.

“Brazil is not suffering this [escassez de ovos]. We never had avian influenza and we suffered the cost problem more strongly in 2020, due to the drought”, recalls Santin.

The lack of rain that year made the 2020/2021 corn crop 16% smaller than in the previous period, according to Conab (National Supply Company), strongly raising the price of grains in the country.

According to the executive, it is this peak in the price of corn back in 2020 that explains the drop in egg production in the country in 2022, which should be repeated in 2023.

“We had a 5% drop in egg production in 2022 and we are projecting a 2% decline in 2023, as a result of the decrease in breeders [aves poedeiras] at the time of the corn peak, when it reached close to R$ 100 a sack”, says Santin.

“An egg-producing breeder spends two years producing, so when there’s a disturbance in that process, the effects are felt up to two or three years ahead.”

Offer guaranteed, but prices on the rise

ABPO estimates Brazilian egg production in 2022 at 52 billion units, with per capita consumption (per person) of 241 units. In 2013, production should retreat to 51 billion, with per capita consumption of 235 units.

“To give you an idea, we produce 1,350 eggs per second in Brazil”, says Santin.

Exports, on the other hand, should increase by 10% between 2022 and 2023, to 11 thousand tons, precisely due to shortages in other parts of the world. But, as 99% of Brazilian egg production is destined for the internal market, the association assesses that the increase in exports will have little effect on internal prices.

Even so, high prices this year will be inevitable, predicts the ABPO.

“This year, there is plenty of corn. The crop was very abundant, but despite having plenty of corn, it will remain at high price levels [devido à redução global de oferta com a guerra da Ucrânia]. This is what means that the egg cannot drop in price in 2023”, explains the sector representative.

“It’s not a matter of supply, there’s no shortage of product, it’s a matter of the price of the input.”

According to the Center for Advanced Studies in Applied Economics at the Luiz de Queiroz College of Agriculture at the University of São Paulo (Cepea/Esalq), egg prices renewed records in 2022.

In Bastos (SP), the largest producing region in the State of São Paulo, the price of a box with 30 dozen extra white eggs closed the month of September with an average of R$ 154.27, the highest of the series, in real terms ( that is, after adjusting for inflation). For the red egg, the monthly average was R$ 169.76, also the highest in the series.

“With the purchasing power of most of the Brazilian population still quite fragile, the demand for eggs tends to remain heated in 2023”, says the Cepea team, in a note published on Monday (9/1).

“As for prices, the expectation is high. In addition to fair supply, high production costs can also sustain — or increase — the trading values ​​of the protein.”

This text was originally published here.