Fixed income maintains advantage with Selic at 13.75%

Fixed income remains an attractive investment option with the maintenance of the basic interest rate at 13.75% per year, announced by the Central Bank this Wednesday (1st).

A survey by the investment search engine Yubb shows that the low-risk yield on the Treasury Selic public bond, which follows the variation in the interest rate, is 4.90% per year, considering the actual return discounted by the estimated 5.74% inflation by the economists consulted by the BC in the Focus report.

Having the attraction of offering exemption from Income Tax to investors, private bonds with tax exemption, such as LCAs (Agricultural Credit Letters), LCI (Real Estate Credit Letters) and incentivized debentures, also stand out in the survey, with estimated returns of 7.22%, 7.61% and 9.29%, respectively.

With a yield of 6.17% per year, savings, the most popular investment among Brazilians, should deliver a return discounted to inflation of 0.41% in 2022, according to the survey.

Although it has returned to delivering positive real profitability after completing two years in the negative field, financial planners point out that the return on the investment is less than half that delivered by the Selic.

The real return on CDBs is calculated from 2.32% to 6.45%, depending on the percentage of the CDI paid on these investments, which tends to be higher for smaller banks.

Savings

With the basic interest rate at 13.75% per year, fixed income investments, such as investment funds, are more attractive and outperform savings in most situations, says Miguel José Ribeiro de Oliveira, executive director of Studies and Economic Research by Anefac (National Association of Finance, Administration and Accounting Executives).

However, the passbooks will remain interesting in relation to fixed income funds with management fees above 2.50% per annum. “With the current Selic, savings lose out to funds whose management fees are lower than 2.50% per year”, says Oliveira.

By law, savings have a guaranteed gain of TR plus 6.17% per year when the Selic rate is above 8.5% per year, as it is currently. Savings are exempt from income tax. Funds are taxed at rates from 15% to 22.5% (the shorter the investment period, the higher the tax).

For an application of R$ 10,000 for a period of 12 months, for example, savings will yield R$ 770 (7.70% per year).

In a fund with a management fee of 0.50% per year, the gain is R$ 1,043 (10.43% per year). With a rate of 1.50% per year, the value drops to R$ 925 (9.25% per year).

There is practically a tie for a management fee of 2.50% per year, which generates a gain of R$796 (7.96% per year). With 3%, the value is already below the savings, at R$ 744 (7.44% per year), calculates from Anefac.

Considering an application in CDB, also taxed by the IR, the investor would have to obtain an interest rate of around 85% of the CDI to reach the same gain obtained by savings, says the executive.

short-term risks

XP’s economy team sees the maintenance of the Selic at the current level in the next three Copom meetings, in March, May and June, as likely. If this scenario materializes, no significant changes are expected in fixed income assets.

“We continue to have a positive view for fixed income in general, as interest rates remain high and the IPCA continues to be a monitoring topic. have increased the volatility of securities”, says the institution in a report.

Data from the Direct Treasury show that the rise in future interest rates impacted some government bonds. Most fixed-rate or inflation-indexed securities with maturities of more than six years show negative returns in the year. Investors who carry the investment until maturity, however, always guarantee a positive result, the one contracted at the time of purchase of the bond.

“The volatility will be due to all these uncertainties in relation to fiscal policy”, says Ricardo Jorge, specialist in fixed income and partner at Quantzed. “We have controversial statements regarding the BC’s independence and possible changes in relation to the inflation target. All of this interferes with the dynamics of the yield curve.

Jaiana Cruz, financial planner and partner at AVG Capital, points to bonds indexed to the IPCA, which are increasingly attractive, as they are paying real interest around 6% above inflation.

“The ideal is for investors to opt for Direct Treasury securities that mature at the intermediate vertices of the interest curve, between 2028 and 2033. It is also worth considering investments in private credit securities that are not taxed, such as incentivized debentures, for example, or certificates of receivables, both from agribusiness and from the real estate sector.”