Opinion – Helio Beltrão: Lula and Alckmin in chess (electoral)

The game of chess allows for analogies with strategic decision-making in election campaigns. Today I reflect on Lula’s recent move with Alckmin.

In chess, the player evaluates at each move whether he is at an advantage, disadvantage or balance. Your chance of victory is determined by virtual calculations that depend on: a) the degree of initiative in the opening (how quickly pieces are placed in key squares), b) the resources available (your pieces: checkers are worth more than rooks, which are worth more than bishops and knights, which are worth more than pawns etc.), and c) the activity potential of the pieces (eg rooks are more active when not blocked by a pawn).

The player seeks to obtain small advantages in the sum of these items. The idea is to form a position with few weaknesses and, at the same time, impose setbacks on the opponent. Lula does not hold the “initiative” in this pre-campaign. Bolsonaro started with white (who have a head start) when starting the campaign as soon as he assumed the presidency. The PT member has been reactive, avoiding debates or aggression and responding through hand-selected interviews to movements by Bolsonaro and Moro.

In the “resources” category, Lula starts with an apparent advantage, indicated by polls that indicate that at this moment he would have more votes (“parts”) than the competitors.

In “activity potential”, the situation seems balanced. Bolsonaro has control of the Budget, approved the Auxílio Brasil, is in charge of the PF and other instances of the federal public machinery. The STF has been sympathetic to Lula and blocked Bolsonaro, and the state governments are divided. Lula has an advantage in the field of the press, universities and in the cultural milieu; Bolsonaro, on social media.

Lula’s situation is not comfortable, despite the apparent advantage. With the alliance with Alckmin, he plays as Armenian Tigran Petrossian, who became world champion in 1963 with “prophylactic” chess.

Just like Carlos Alberto Parreira’s champion team (1994), Petrossian’s concern was to avoid every weakness (not taking a goal) and opportunistically build an advantage that would lead to the final victory. Lula “Petrossian” seeks to alleviate his weaknesses, attracting the moderate-centered electorate and the confidence of the business community.

Petrossian reigned for six years and was dethroned by Boris Spassky, the first “universal player with a clear inclination towards attacking play and a splendid sensitivity to initiative,” according to Kasparov.

Spassky exploited the “two-weakness principle” in the 1969 match. A weak position can be defended by a skilled player, but the defense of two weaknesses requires the mobilization of precious resources that will be lacking elsewhere on the board.

With Alckmin, Lula hopes to alleviate his weakness as a convict, but he will hardly deal well with a second weakness: Alckmin himself. In 2018, the former governor was swept from the polls and, like Lula,
has reputational problems linked to corruption. It is hated by a good number of PT members and other left-wing extremists. And, as it has always been on the moderate left, it will not attract votes from the right.

The chessboard for 2022 is being drawn up, and the forces that do not want the left to return to power will have work. In chess, you have to exert pressure incessantly, leaving no room for counterattacks.

For Moro and Bolsonaro, it’s time to continually exploit Lula’s two weaknesses.

Like Lula, Petrossian was a supporter of the Soviet regime. Spassky, on the other hand, a dissident. May your victory and your fight for freedom inspire Brazilians in 2022