Specialists reduced Brazil’s growth prospects for 2022, but maintained the scenario for inflation and monetary policy this year, according to the Focus survey released by the Central Bank this Monday (3).
According to the weekly survey, the Gross Domestic Product should expand by 0.36% this year, against expectations a week earlier for growth of 0.42%. For 2023, the perspective of an advance of 1.80% for the GDP follows.
For 2021, the approximately 100 economists consulted adjusted their accounts for a 4.50% growth of the economy, 0.01 percentage point less than the previous projection in the survey.
In relation to inflation, there was also an adjustment in the scenario for 2021 to a high of 10.01%, from 10.02% before. IBGE releases data for December and 2021 as a whole for the IPCA on January 11th.
For this year, the estimate for the advance of the IPCA remained at 5.03%, while, for 2023, it rose to 3.41%, from 3.38%.
The estimate for 2021 was well above the official target, which is 3.75% with a tolerance margin of 1.5 percentage points more or less. For this year, the center of the goal is 3.5% and, for 2023, 3.25%, always with a margin of 1.5 points.
With regard to monetary policy, the expectation is that the Selic will end 2022 at 11.50% and 2023 at 8.00%. At the last meeting of last year, the BC raised the basic interest rate to 9.25% and will meet again on February 1st and 2nd.
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