Commodities Shuttle: Drought in the South already threatens grain supercrop

The 290 million tonne super-harvest projected for this year is starting to have some question marks. And, once again, the challenges begin in the South region. Intense heat and drought affect the planting and evolution of corn, soybean and rice crops.

The heat also affects pastures, milk production and fruit plantations. In the opinion of Paulo Pires, president of FecoAgro (Federation of Agricultural Cooperatives of the State of Rio Grande do Sul), 2022 begins in a melancholy way.

According to him, the first numbers indicate losses of 59% in dry corn and current perspectives of a 24% drop in soybeans in the state. The rain is coming late, and the damage is irreversible.

Emater/RS still doesn’t have numbers, but this will be a bad year for corn, says Alencar Rugeri, the entity’s technical director.

December is the main month for the development of the maize crop, and the crops suffered a lot from the intense drought, according to him.

Losses are localized, and the intensity of damage depends on the region. Some producers report losses of 6%. In some cases, however, the report is 90%.

This number of losses is not closed, and the next few weeks will be decisive, including for soybeans. January is a decisive month for oilseed crops.

According to Rugeri, 245 municipalities in the state are affected by the drought, and 138,000 properties were affected. In some cases, families no longer have water to drink and to give to the animals, says the director of Emater.

The drought is apparent in the production of silage, which had a drop of 57% in Rio Grande do Sul.

Milk production and fruit growing are also included in the list of agricultural activities affected by the drought.

Drought also influences rice production, due to the reduction of water in the properties’ reservoirs. The state is the largest national producer of this cereal, with a potential of 8.1 million tons.

Santa Catarina is also on the route of losses, due to the drought. An important pole in the production of fruit, São Joaquim will have the apple production quite shaken.

The severe drought mainly affects the Gala and Fuji varieties, which harvest in February and March. With a production potential of 350,000 tons of apples, the region’s economy depends heavily on this fruit.

The drought compromises the size of the fruit and, consequently, the volume to be produced, according to Mariuccia Schlichting de Martin, a researcher at Epagri (Santa Catarina Agricultural Research and Rural Extension Company).

In areas most affected by intense heat and lack of rain, trees are losing leaves and fruits are wilting. This adverse climate causes burns on the skin of the fruits, which lose commercial value. Even with the occurrence of rains, much of the production does not recover.

This year’s drought could also affect next year’s harvest, as plants are losing the reserves they have for reproduction in the next harvest.

Some producers already report losses of 80% in their production. This damage is irreversible, according to Mariuccia.

The situation in Paraná, the second largest grain producer in the country, is also worrying. The production potential of soybeans, corn and beans from the first crop lagged behind. Soybean losses will be 7.8 million tons; corn, 1.4 million; and beans 107 thousand. The losses, in relation to the initial collection potential, already add up to R$ 24 billion.

Losses in Paraná take on a complicated dimension, since the state is the main national producer of beans, the first in poultry and the second in swine and milk. The cost of producing proteins will be much higher.

The scenario ahead is not encouraging, according to Salatiel Turra, head of the Deral (Department of Rural Economy) of Paraná, since the conditions of the plants are getting worse.

Two weeks ago, 13% of soybean crops were considered bad. Now, it’s 31%. In the same period, the picture for corn rose from 10% to 25%.

According to Deral’s calculations, the state has already reduced the corn production potential by 10 million tons in the sum of the 2021 off-season and the current one, considered to be summer.

The concern now is with this year’s safrinha, which will be sown after the soybean harvest. The South region has been experiencing corn production losses for three years.

The drop in beans, a daily staple for Brazilian consumers, is already over 30% this season, according to Marcelo Lüders, president of Ibrafe (Brazilian Institute of Beans and Pulses).