Airline recovery will not come in 2022; understand

Passenger transport in the airline industry in 2021 was not even the shadow of what it was in previous periods, with half of the circulation recorded compared to pre-pandemic levels, and this year will still have to face challenges such as the omicron variant of the coronavirus.

Last year there were 2.3 billion passengers, much less than in 2019 (4.5 billion), the last year before the appearance of Covid-19, the Civil Aviation Organization (Oaci) reported this Wednesday (12). International).

These preliminary figures from the UN agency reflect some improvement compared to 2020, when the pandemic caused an almost total stoppage in the sector for weeks.

In 2020, only 1.8 billion passengers boarded planes, 60% less than the previous year, reaching levels not seen since 2003.

In 2021, airlines continued to suffer from the effects of the health crisis.

Thus, its total revenue in 2021 is estimated at US$ 251 billion (R$ 1.4 trillion, at the current price), 56.3% less than in 2019, US$ 575 billion (R$ 3.2 trillion) , although this figure improves on the 2020 mark of US$ 203 billion (R$ 1.1 billion).

For 2022, Oaci plans scenarios that vary between -26% and -31% of passengers compared to 2019, with revenue losses from -32.4% to -37.7%.

The organization also highlighted a contrast between domestic and international connections, as the latter are affected by border closures and other restrictions.

In 2022, ICAO estimates that international passenger traffic will continue to be 43% to 48% lower than in 2019.

On the contrary, on domestic flights, the volume of passengers will be between 14% and 19% lower than before the health crisis.

It is brutal das reservations

The forecasts coincide with those of IATA (International Air Transport Association), which in October considered that companies would have accumulated net losses of US$ 11.6 billion (R$ 64.5 billion) this year against US$ 51.8 billion. (R$ 288 billion) expected in 2021 and US$ 137.7 billion (R$ 765.7 billion) for 2020.

However, these predictions were made before the appearance of the highly contagious omicron variant of the coronavirus, which led governments to impose restrictions on circulation.

“For us it is surprising that sales of airline tickets for international flights made between December and the beginning of January have fallen sharply compared to 2019, which anticipates a first quarter [de 2022] more difficult than expected”, evaluated this Wednesday (12) the director general of IATA, Willie Walsh. His organization brings together more than 290 companies, which total 83% of world air traffic.

So far, IATA’s 2022 scenario predicts very different situations depending on the large geographic zones, with US airlines returning to profitability (US$ 9.9 billion in accumulated earnings).

Airlines, in turn, with a large preponderance of international services, should continue to make a loss in 2022, with an estimated loss of US$ 9.2 billion (R$ 51.2 billion), according to IATA.