By Chrysostomos Tsoufis

The energy market on a tightrope…

Gas prices remind roller coaster the last 48 hours, with large increases and sharp dives within the same day.

While it moved from mid-June onwards between €25-30, it suddenly found itself at €42, an intra-session increase of 30% reminding everyone that the… risk to family budgets does not end only in food and fuel.

News of strikes at 3 major Australian gas facilities has raised alarm in Europe over LNG shortages. Not directly, since Australia rarely sends cargo to the Old Continent, but indirectly. If Australians stop exporting, that means more competition with Asia (China, Japan and South Korea) which pushes prices up. Analysts note that if, like last year, Australia’s production stops for 2 months, natural gas could exceed €50.

Concerns about delays in completing routine maintenance at Norway’s natural gas facilities and some problems in flows from the US are adding to the concern.

All this, while European warehouses they are almost full. 88% underground storage and 61% LNG tanks. Belgium with 100% occupancy, Spain with 98%, the Netherlands with 91%, Germany with 90% and Italy with 89% seem to have done the most work for winter preparations.

At the same time, oil has been steadily rising for 5 weeks. Since June 27, when it was at $72/barrel, it also exceeded $88, which is a 7-month high. Undoubtedly, the new cuts in production announced by Saudi Arabia and Russia, which will last the whole of September, have upset the market. The heat of the past few days has knocked out some of the largest US refineries and at the same time demand is increasing due to both the season and China…

The majority of analysts estimate that in the second half of the year the prices will rise even more, while there are also those who consider the possibility of a price of $170/barrel in a 2-year horizon if the international economic conditions remain as they are.

As a result of the oil rally, it is the average price of unleaded in our country to have increased by 10 minutes approximately from July 1st, at €1.96, a breath from the psychological limit of €2 just before August 15th. In 12 prefectures (such as in the Cyclades, the Dodecanese, Kefalonia, Heraklion and Evrytania) already the average price has reached €2.

According to Eurostat data, Greece has the third most expensive unleaded in Europe behind only the Netherlands and Denmark. But if taxes are taken out, it falls to the middle of the ranking and in 13th place. The government, however, remains steadfast in its position of not reducing indirect taxes and for now rejects solutions fuel pass type.