New increasing pressures on food prices is expected to cause in the coming months the occurrence of the periodic phenomenon El Niño to Pacific Oceanwhich is predicted to sharply increase the temperature in productive zones of Asia and Central America in the next period, but also heavy rains in areas of South America.

As reported by the Financial Times, his previous appearances El Niñoespecially in the two years 2009-10 and 2015-16, have caused prolonged heatwaves, droughts and occasional floods, resulting in serious problems in crops and harvests, with consequent appreciation of food prices.

Indicative of the impact of El Niño is that, according to analyzes of past episodes by the European Central Bank, a one degree Celsius increase in temperature leads to an increase in global food prices by more than 6% a year after the phenomenon began.

El Niño’s “threat” to household wallets around the world adds to a web of risks already exerting strong inflationary pressures on food costs.

The two main factors behind global food insecurity, besides El Niño, are the collapse of the agreement to export Ukrainian grain through the Black Sea in July – with Russia subsequently bombing warehouses, ports and ferries in the Black Sea and the Danube- and India’s near-simultaneous decision to ban or severely limit exports of all varieties of rice in order to prevent price appreciation in the domestic market.

Given that Russia, Ukraine and India have historically been three of the world’s largest exporters of grains, corn, oil and rice, these developments have raised serious concerns throughout the production and transport chain.

Market veterans also note that there is also the risk of moving containers, meaning that the shortage of even one commodity such as wheat could cause a domino effect on rice prices, given that it is the easiest alternative for many consumers. , especially in the developing world.

Additional concern is caused by the possibility of limiting Indian sugar exports as a consequence of the water shortage observed in production areas in recent months.

The UN’s World Food Index, which has been falling almost continuously since last summer, rose by 1.5 points between June and July.