Into uncharted waters it could lead them commodity prices the ignition in the middle east estimates the world bank. According to the basic scenario oil prices are expected to fluctuate at 90 dollars a barrel in the fourth quarter before scaling back to $81 the barrel next year.

In case of escalation of the crisis the world bank is considering three scenarios:

-The “minor disturbance” scenario, corresponding to a decline in oil production seen during the civil war in Libya of 500,000 to 2 million barrels per day, will drive oil prices to a range of $93 to $102 a barrel in the fourth quarter, the bank said.

-The “moderate disturbance” scenario, roughly corresponding to the 2003 Iraq War – will lead to a reduction in global oil supplies of 3 million to 5 million barrels per day, driving prices between $109 and $121 per barrel.

–The “great upheaval” scenario of the World Bank recalls the impact of the Arab oil embargo in 1973, reducing global oil supply by 6 million to 8 million barrels per day. This will initially drive prices upwards at 140 to 157 dollars a barrel, increasing by up to 75%.